2026 NFL Picks Week 7: A Winning Week!
A winning week! What a miraculous event in the 2026-27 season! It took some wacky bounces and the Rams knocked me out of a survivor league, but I’ll happily take it. The slates are getting more complex each week with international travel, bye weeks, and normal rest differentials, but we’re ready to sift through all of it.
Chicago Bears -3 vs. New England Patriots
The Bears are healthier, they’re at home, and their offense looks borderline unstoppable when Caleb Williams isn’t playing against Brian Flores in a rainstorm. But this is a short week, and New England’s offense has been pretty explosive lately. I like the Bears to win, but not by more than the full three points. Patriots +3
New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Saints don’t qualify as a home underdog here because this game is being played in Paris, but something still feels a little off. Pittsburgh has really struggled on the road this year, and their offense is missing a lot of their most explosive players. I get why they’re favored, but it shouldn't be by this much. Saints +3.5
Baltimore Ravens +1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I don’t want to beat the Ravens up too much for losing in Cleveland last week; that’s what the Browns do at home, especially against division opponents. I am a little worried about the Baltimore defense, though. They aren’t terrible, but they haven’t performed the way fans must have hoped when they brought Jesse Minter in. Cincinnati should be healthy coming off their bye week, and I like them to win with the extra rest and no Lamar Jackson in the lineup. Bengals -1
Tennessee Titans +2 vs. Cleveland Browns
I can’t believe I’m picking the Titans for a second consecutive week. They needed some fluky plays to pull out a win over the Colts last week, but is there reason to believe they won’t get any of those at home against Deshaun Watson? The Browns play like a different team on the road, and they haven’t shown the ability to get big wins anywhere. Even if the Titans lose, I could see it coming by a goofy 16-14 score. Titans +2
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts just lost to the Titans at home, and they’re getting less than a touchdown against the league’s best defense in Minnesota? Even if the Vikings’ offense doesn’t continue to improve with Kyler Murray in the lineup, they could cover this spread with how bad Indianapolis has been this year. If Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison can cook a little coming off a bye, double digits are more likely. Vikings -6.5
New York Jets -5 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Jets shouldn’t be favored by this much against anyone…except the Dolphins. I’m still in “prove it” mode for Miami this season, and their closest loss so far came by 5 points. I think they need a touchdown for me to consider taking them until further notice. Jets -5
Houston Texans -10 vs. New York Giants
Everything points me away from the Texans in this game. Houston is returning from London and they’re favored by more than a touchdown; teams following a game in Europe are 0-2-1 straight up and 0-3 against the spread this season. Favorites of more than 7 points are covering less than 40% of the time. And yet…the Texans need this win as badly as ever, their passing offense is on fire, and their defense now gets to face J.J. McCarthy. It makes me uncomfortable, but I’m taking Houston. Texans -10
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I didn’t like the matchup for my Bears in Atlanta last week, and they covered relatively comfortably. The 49ers have been a much better team than Chicago this year and they’re only favored by a field goal. Bijan and Drake London might finally puncture what looks like a vulnerable San Francisco defense, but they’ve played well enough to earn the benefit of the doubt. 49ers -3
Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I like what I’ve seen from the Panthers, but they’re not ready to join the consistently good tier of teams just yet. Beating Tanner McKee and the Eagles after they returned from England is one thing, but facing NFC South divisional chaos with the Bucs and their very solid defense coming to town is another. I’m expecting an interesting game that finishes close enough to get a cover. Buccaneers +3
Arizona Cardinals +4 vs. Denver Broncos
I wanted to jump all over the Cardinals when I first saw this line, and that’s why I had to pause to think about it more. Bo Nix has been incredibly boring this year, but the Broncos keep winning. They’ve beaten the Rams, Jaguars, and Seahawks already this season, and the Cardinals aren’t in the same class. I know it doesn’t feel good, but sometimes boring is enough. Broncos -4
Detroit Lions -3 vs. Green Bay Packers
Finally, a real test for the Packers! I’m always skeptical of the second most overhyped team of the offseason, but big wins over a stumbling Dallas team and two backup quarterbacks has gotten them right back into the mouths of my favorite podcast and television analysts. Detroit is coming off a bye week and should be getting Brian Branch back. In theory, this is a great opportunity for the Lions to make a statement with a big divisional win…but I’m not ready to trust their defense just yet. Even if they win, I think it’s going to be close. Packers +3
Las Vegas Raiders +4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
This line also feels like an overreaction. I know the Rams looked bad last week, but the Cardinals did an exceptional job controlling the football and still should have lost without some unusual gaffes even by 2026 Rams standards. McVay and Stafford should tear up the Raiders’ defense just like Josh Allen did, and their defense is considerably better than Buffalo’s. Mix it all together and you have the recipe for a big Rams’ win. Rams -4
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
That’s right, we’re back! Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are getting a full field goal? Against a team whose quarterback can’t seem to keep the ball away from eager defenses? Say no more! Chiefs +3
Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys haven’t done anything to deserve being such a big favorite in a road game. Of course they could cover the spread if everything clicks for their offense, but we haven’t seen that often this season and their defense remains terrible. Maybe even bad enough for Tanner McKee and the Eagles to score 25 points in a win. Eagles +4.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
