2026 NFL Picks Week 6: Rollin' With the Home-ies
Another exceptionally “meh” week for us here at QQ, but hope can always be found in a new set of lines. We’re going heavy with home teams this week, because a few of the big favorites should be ready to hit their stride and a few other lines just don’t make any sense. Let’s see if home cooking is the solution to our problems!
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I thought the Seahawks’ defense would embarrass Bo Nix thoroughly enough to come away with a win in Denver, and they probably should have. A turnover-happy Sam Darnold and a missed field goal in regulation tilted it the other way, though. Kudos to the Denver defense and an 0-1 start for us. Seahawks +2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 vs. Houston Texans
I really wanted to take the Texans here with how badly they need the divisional win and how sloppy Jacksonville has been in recent weeks, but with the line under a field goal and the Jags theoretically better-adjusted to the time zone in London, I’m riding with them. They’ve been the better team all season, and if they can generate pressure on C.J. Stroud they should pick up a second win across the pond. Jaguars -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles +3 vs. Carolina Panthers
The line here moved from +1 to +3 with the news that Jalen Hurts is out, which is either disrespectful to Hurts or way too optimistic about Tanner McKee. I was going to take the Panthers before and I’m sticking with them now; the Eagles are just days removed from a rough loss in the U.K. and I like Carolina’s ability to run on Philly the way Chicago did. Panthers -3
Atlanta Falcons +1 vs. Chicago Bears
It sounds like we’ll have Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. active for this game, and if Penix can stay healthy I like the Falcons. The worst unit in the game is undoubtedly Chicago’s defense, and with Caleb shaking off some rust I don’t know why the Bears are favored on the road. Falcons +1
New York Giants +1 vs. New Orleans Saints
Another strange line here; the best case to be made for the Saints is that they need to regress to just being regular bad instead of embarrassingly bad after 9 quarters of uncompetitive football. I’m not wild about Jameis Winston as a professional quarterback, but the Giants deserve to be favored in the matchup at home. Giants +1
New England Patriots -7 vs. New York Jets
I went back and forth on this line a few times this week, but Drake Maye has looked too good recently for me to expect the Jets to slow him down. If the Patriots can get over 30 points at home, they should be able to cover, especially with Christian Gonzales active again. Geno Smith could prove me wrong, but the Jets have been struggling lately. Patriots -7
Indianapolis Colts -7 vs. Tennessee Titans
I haven’t seen much from the Titans this season, but they’ve managed to be competitive in games against middling defenses. Indy absolutely fits that bill, and Daniel Jones isn’t playing well enough on the other side of the ball to win a blowout on offense alone. I have no interest in watching the game, but the full seven points is too much to pass up. Titans +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Almost every bone in my body is screaming at me to pick against Jalon Daniels getting less than a field goal, but this line is suspiciously low. The Steelers have been playing well lately, so why aren’t they favored by more against a rookie undrafted free agent at quarterback? I think Tampa’s defense will cause some problems for Aaron Rodgers, and if Daniels plays the same way he did against Dallas a full ten days ago by kickoff, that’s enough to give the Bucs the edge at home. Buccaneers +2.5
Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I like what Tyler Huntley can do filling in for Lamar Jackson, and he did a terrific job coming back against the Falcons last week for a cover and an outright win. Playing Cleveland in Cleveland is a different challenge, though, and I’m not passing up a full field goal for the home team. Even if Cleveland doesn’t play particularly well on offense, they can cover this spread at home. Browns +3
Los Angeles Rams -13.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
All week long I was planning to back the Cardinals, but I just couldn’t do it. The Rams absolutely should win this game by two touchdowns or more, like they did twice last season. Most importantly I think Arizona can’t stay competitive if they fall in a hole early. Jacoby Brissett is just too limited to pull off a backdoor cover if things get out of hand early, and the Rams have every incentive to go all out. Rams -13
Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
I don’t feel good about it, but I think the Raiders are still playing well enough to back in a spot like this. The Bills are coming off an overtime game on Monday night, the Raiders are at home, and Kirk Cousins should have no problem moving the ball on Buffalo’s defense. Joshy could make it irrelevant, or he could throw a questionable interception or two and end up in a close game; he’s thrown four in the last three games. Raiders +4.5
Kansas City Chiefs -8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are broken and the Chiefs are coming off a bye. Of course in a divisional game like this with a long history of close contests I’m a little nervous laying this many points. I can always put my mind at ease by watching clips of the Chargers in any non-garbage-time action this season, at least. Chiefs -8
Green Bay Packers -1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Yuck. The Cowboys should win this game with their rest advantage, but I have such a hard time trusting them away from home. Jordan Love’s favorite deep shots should be readily available against the Dallas defense, and I think the standard home line of -2.5 would be more appropriate. Packers -1.5
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Washington, despite an extremely embarrassing loss last week, is kind of a fun team to watch. Jayden Daniels is healthy again, and I can see this game resembling 49ers-Cardinals from a few weeks ago. If it was 6.5 I’d probably take the Niners, but getting the 7.5 is too tempting to pass up. Commanders +7.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
