2026 NFL Picks Week 8: Tracking the Traders
Ouch, that was a hard fall back to earth. We went 0-4 in the primetime games, and when you start in a hole that big it’s hard to climb out. We’ll see if we can bounce back during a busy trade season or if the confusion there makes things even harder; in general, my approach is to not over-react to trades immediately after they’re made. To the picks!
Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Last season, before Micah Parsons was injured, the Panthers went into Lambeau Field and beat the Packers 16-13. It was a huge surprise at the time, but felt less shocking by the end of the season. Now, Micah Parsons is still recovering, the Packers are worse than they were last year, and the Panthers seem better; so why is Green Bay favored by more than a field goal? It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, and that’s before including the difficulties Packers’ kicker Trey Smack has been having. Panthers +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers have been sneakily good this season, especially on defense. They had their share of struggles when Baker Mayfield was clearly trying to do too much in the early weeks, but he’s back now and hopefully playing more within himself. If Emeka Egbuka is back healthy, the Bucs have enough to challenge another surprisingly good defense in Atlanta. Bijan and Drake London could take over this game, but I think Todd Bowles will be able to frustrate Michael Penix Jr. enough to make him uncomfortable. I feel okay taking the standard home line here with the statistically better team. Buccaneers -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland won this matchup a couple weeks ago, and the Steelers are now playing the Sunday after a game in Europe. Teams on their return from Europe are 0-3-1 straight up and 0-4 against the spread this season. The Steelers have shown some interesting flashes on offense, and certainly more than I expected coming into the season. The same can be said of Cleveland, though, and this feels more like a classic AFC North rockfight than anything else. I think this line should be 2.5 or 3, so I’m taking the Browns. Browns +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -10 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Big spreads are bad news this season. Through 7 weeks, favorites of 7 points or more are just 16-10 overall and 7-18-1 against the spread. Last week it was the Texans, who returned from London and laid an egg against J.J. McCarthy and the New York Giants, losing outright as a 10-point favorite. And yet…the Jags are clearly the superior team, they’re playing at home after a bye week, and the Colts are in the middle of a firesale. Their offense has always found success against the Colts in the Liam Coen era, and they’ll do it again this week on their way to a double digit victory. Jaguars -10
Dallas Cowboys -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals
This one, on the other hand…why are the Cowboys favored by a full touchdown against a team that beat them last year and just beat the Rams two weeks ago? I know the Cardinals have some problems, but their only embarrassing performances have come against teams with top-tier defenses like the Seahawks and Broncos. The Cowboys are the opposite of that, and the Cardinals should have no trouble running the same ball control offense they ran against the Rams. No team with a defense as bad as Dallas’s should be favored by a full touchdown against a competitive team. Cardinals +7
Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I want to support my friends and my QQ Podcast co-host by taking the Lions here, but I can’t do it with the line over a field goal. Minnesota beat Detroit twice last year, and while their offense obviously has some problems, their defense under Brian Flores is better than ever. Maybe the return of Brian Branch is enough to turn the Lions back into a consistent favorite at home, but until I see it I’m taking the undefeated team and the points. Vikings +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals -12 vs. Tennessee Titans
Oh look, another huge line! Yes, the Titans just traded their best player in Jonathan Simmons to my Chicago Bears, and yes, I appreciate it very much. They’ve still managed to be competitive in most of their games this year, and it’s just hard to justify a line this big. Can the Bengals blow Tennessee out of the water and win 42-20? Absolutely. Do I want to count on it? Absolutely not. Titans +12
New York Jets -1.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Jets were truly embarrassing in their loss to the Dolphins last week, and I’m pretty annoyed with them for that. One week doesn’t count more than all of the others, though, and the Jets have been just as good as the Raiders this season. Playing at home against a Pacific Time Zone team traveling East? They should be able to pull out a win. Jets -1.5
Buffalo Bills -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson should be back for this game, and if that’s the case I can’t wait to see what he and Derrick Henry do to this Bills’ defense. Buffalo has been getting by on the strength of Josh Allen and not much else, and if Baltimore’s defense can force a turnover or two they should be able to win this game on the road. Everything changes if Lamar is out or limited, but at this point of the week I think the Ravens are in a good spot to stay within a field goal. Ravens +3
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I know the Chargers are coming off their bye, and there isn’t a team who needed it more. Joe Alt is back, but they’re still ravaged by injuries and looking utterly lost on offense. Maybe they figure it out this week, but I think it’s more likely Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua notch a comfortable win over the team ranked 32nd in Total DVOA. Yes, below the Dolphins, Titans, and everyone else. Rams -6.5
Denver Broncos +1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I know the Chiefs looked bad last week, but for all of Denver’s defensive strengths, they aren’t on the same level as the Seahawks. Seattle makes it impossible for anyone to run the ball, and I’d be surprised if Kenneth Walker couldn’t get back on track against the team he carved up for 173 yards in Week 1. Bo Nix still can’t execute any offense beyond checkdowns and the occasional scramble, and that won’t be enough to get the best of Steve Spagnuolo and a solid Chiefs’ defense. If it’s going to be close, I’m still siding with Mahomes. Chiefs -1
Miami Dolphins +7 vs. New England Patriots
I know I’ve been preaching about the 7 point lines, but the Dolphins still belong in a different class. In fact, teams favored by 7 or more points against Miami are 2-1 against the spread this year. New England should be coming in hot with some extra rest after their Thursday Night game, and they beat up on the Dolphins twice last year. This should be an easy win. Patriots -7
Washington Commanders -6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I can’t tell if I’m too high on the Eagles or too low on everyone else in the NFC East. Dallas rolled to a big win and a comfortable cover last week, but Washington isn’t as well-equipped to win big. I like their team with Jayden Daniels back, but not enough to take them as a big favorite against a comparable team; let’s not forget they’re 1-4-1 on the season. Eagles +6
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Chicago Bears
I won’t even pretend this isn’t an emotional hedge. The Bears haven’t looked this good in about 15 years, and a win in Seattle would put them right in the mix at the top of the league. I love what I’ve seen out of Caleb Williams this year, and Dennis Allen has done a great job maximizing what talent there is on the defensive side, but I’m not ready to put them in Seattle’s class…yet. Seahawks -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
