2026 NFL Picks Week 10: Questionable Quarterbacks
The quarterback movement this week is a bit dizzying. The Raiders traded Kirk Cousins and he’ll immediately be starting for Minnesota, so Fernando Mendoza will be making his first start for Las Vegas. The Cardinals traded Jacoby Brissett to the Ravens and he’ll be starting against the Chargers on Monday Night Football while Arizona, with Gardner Minshew injured, will be starting Carson Beck. Malik Willis is on IR and Kyle McCord is starting for Miami, Deshaun Watson is back for the Browns, Drew Lock is still filling in for Sam Darnold in Seattle, J.J. McCarthy continues to start for the Giants, and Joe Milton would be in action again if the Eagles weren’t on their bye. Some of these changes moved lines, and others are too bizarre to properly value. In total, only three quarters of the teams in action this weekend are playing their Day 1 starters, but the picks must go on!
New York Giants -2.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Wow, we lucked out on this one! I took the Commanders because I had more faith in their offense and figured they could muck things up enough for J.J. McCarthy to win the way they should have in the Week 5 tie. The Giants almost had this one wrapped up before they let Stefon Diggs “break” a tackle and zip into the end zone in the closing minutes. It was a weak way to lose, but maybe this Giants team just wasn’t meant to be 6-2-1. Commanders +2.5
Detroit Lions -2.5 vs. New England Patriots
A neutral-site game in Munich this weekend with the 6-2 Lions favored by less than a field goal against the 5-4 Patriots. I expect this to be closer than Green Bay’s blowout in New England last week, but how much closer should it be? A.J. Brown is still questionable, the Patriots’ offensive line is banged up, and they’ve given up 30+ points to the Bears and Packers in the last three weeks. Detroit should be able to move the ball steadily and I don’t think Drake Maye has been consistent enough to keep up all game. Lions -2.5
New York Jets +8.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
I took the Jets getting 10 points against the Chiefs last week and they really fell apart. That isn’t unusual for them, but losing by multiple scores is; they’ve been within 7 points in every game except that one and their Week 4 game in Chicago. Now they’re at home against a Bills team coming off a grueling Monday Night Football matchup against the Vikings, and this line feels too big. Even if Josh Allen continues at an MVP pace, the Jets can cover with this much help. Jets +8.5
New Orleans Saints -1.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
A very strange divisional matchup to figure out here. The Saints are clearly the lesser team on paper, but nothing is a given in the NFC South. New Orleans is getting healthier on offense with their tackles returning and Jordyn Tyson debuting last week, and for all of their defensive faults, they held the Panthers to a total of 24 points in two games last season. Should they be favored here, though, after nearly losing to the Shedeur Sanders Browns? I can’t quite get there until I’ve seen a little more from the healthy version of the Saints’ offense. Panthers +1.5
Cleveland Browns +4.5 vs. Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson is back for the Browns this week, and they’re back at home where they’ve been considerably better over the past three seasons. The bar is low; these are the Browns, after all, but they’re 3-0 at home this season and 2-4 on the road, and 13 of their 19 wins from 2023-2025 came at home. The Texans are rolling behind C.J. Stroud and a healthy receiving corps, and I think their defense is going to tee off on a weak Browns’ offense. I’ve been burned by Houston a lot this season, but I’m ready to be hurt again. Texans -4.5
Tennessee Titans +10.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It wouldn’t be us at Questionably Qualified if we weren’t backing the Liam Coen Jags. Jacksonville has been better at home than on the road, but that’s more because they’ve dominated at home than struggled away. Last season the Jags won two games against the Titans by a combined score of 66-10. The biggest change from then to now is the Titans trading away Jeffery Simmons and Amani Hooker. I’m okay laying the points. Jaguars -10.5
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This line opened at 3.5, and now the only big question I have is: why did it move towards the Falcons? They’re at a significant rest disadvantage coming back from a game in Europe last Sunday, and the good teams they’ve beaten this year (the Niners and the Packers, specifically) are a different challenge than what the Chiefs present. Kenneth Walker III should be able to run free against the league’s 18th-ranked run defense and Steve Spagnuolo will be making Michael Penix Jr. uncomfortable in the pocket all game long. Chiefs -3
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Avert your eyes! I like how Miami has been playing this season, given their talent level, but they’re now starting Kyle McCord, a 2025 6th round pick, at quarterback. Even if Daniel Jones and his pass-catchers are uninspiring, there’s a big gap between a professional offense and what we might see from Miami this week. The Colts have been good enough at home to cover this line. Colts -3.5
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I’d be lying if I said I was confident in this pick, but the Vikings’ defense still looks like the best in the NFL and they certainly got the better of Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur in Week 1. I haven’t seen evidence that Green Bay has fixed the core problems that were exposed in that 39-22 loss, and I think Kirk Cousins can do enough to at least give the Vikings’ defense a rest. I wish I could get 3.5, but a full field goal will have to do. Vikings +3
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Another backup quarterback alert! The Cardinals are starting rookie quarterback Carson Beck this week, and unfortunately for him the Rams have put together their two best defensive performances of the season in the last two weeks. Will that be enough to cover a spread this large, though? The Cardinals beat the Rams 18-16 in L.A. just four weeks ago, and the Rams had Puka Nacua in that game. They’re going to be stuck in a run-first script this week with Konata Mumpfield, Tutu Atwell, and CJ Daniels as their receivers. I certainly think they’ll win this time around, but this line is too big. Cardinals +9.5
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The line feels big for Drew Lock, but this is such a tough assignment for Fernando Mendoza in his first NFL start. The Raiders made the right move to trade Cousins, but I can’t imagine they’ll find more than 10 points in this game with a rookie quarterback and Brock Bowers. Drew Lock isn’t making any eyes pop, but he’s also playing smart; against a Las Vegas defense that hasn’t held a team under 27 points since Week 2, that should be enough. Seahawks -6.5
Dallas Cowboys +4.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I feel like this line is based on the expectations we had for the Cowboys at the start of the season. Their offense has looked well short of unstoppable, and being at home isn’t the cure: they’ve already lost to the Bucs and the Cardinals in Dallas this season. Their defense has no chance to slow down the Niners, and without George Pickens or an A+ Dak Prescott showing, they won’t stay within a touchdown. 49ers -4.5
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I find myself liking Joe Burrow more and more with every social media clip he’s featured in, and he is straight cooking right now; in their four-game win streak he’s completed 77% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The Steelers present a bigger challenge than any of those teams (Dolphins, Ravens, Titans, Falcons), though, and they have a huge rest advantage coming off a bye to face a team coming back from Madrid. I don’t know why the spread is bigger than a field goal, but I’m happy to take it. Steelers +3.5
Baltimore Ravens -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
As little faith as I have in Jacoby Brissett, I have even less in the Chargers. The Ravens have a rest advantage here and the Chargers haven’t lost by single digits since Week 5. Fade the Chargers until they give you a reason not to. Ravens -5.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
