2025 NFL Picks Conference Championships: MVPs vs. Superior Teams
Well, look what we have here: a realistic possibility of a Sam Darnold-Jarrett Stidham Super Bowl! The implied probability for that matchup based on the moneylines is around 19%, which is much higher than I’d prefer, but for the millionth time, this is a weird season! The NFC rubber match between the Rams and Seahawks has all the makings of a classic, but we might just get lucky on the AFC side, too. Let’s see what the Broncos would need to pull off an upset at home.
Denver Broncos +5.5 vs. New England Patriots
I’m a little mad at Josh Allen for giving us this matchup instead of Bills-Patriots round three, but it isn’t his fault Bo Nix broke his ankle on a strangely-timed QB keeper in overtime. Now Jarrett Stidham and Sean Payton will be trying to keep pace with Drake Maye with the benefit of facing a much weaker defense, at least at first glance. The Patriots didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory last week, managing just 248 yards and winning largely because of four ugly interceptions from C.J. Stroud. I think the winner of this game, including the spread or not, will be decided by two things: can the Denver defense attack a weak offensive line and shut down Drake Maye? And can Jarrett Stidham execute a classic backup-QB gameplan against the Patriots?
Let’s start with Stidham. In seven seasons he has started four games, in which he’s thrown six touchdowns and four interceptions. His surface stats aren’t terrible, but it’s a bit concerning that he couldn’t find more playing time behind Cam Newton, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson. The New England defense is 23rd in Defensive DVOA, but they’re 14th in weighted Defensive DVOA which puts more emphasis on recent games. It isn’t a better predictor of performance, but it could be important here as key players Milton Williams and Christian Gonzales both appear to be healthy. If the Patriots play like a bottom-third defense, Denver can run the ball a bit and hit some well-designed chunk plays behind a very good offensive line. If they play like a slightly-above-average unit and shut down the run like they have since Derrick Henry ran wild on them in Week 16 (a game Williams missed), the Broncos might not score two touchdowns on offense all day. I’m inclined to believe Sean Payton can scheme his way to twenty points with a mediocre Stidham, but it’s hard for me to imagine them getting much higher than that.
If we expect the Denver offense to settle around there, we’d need the Patriots to hit 25 to cover the spread, which started at 6 and has since dropped all the way to 4.5. They’ve hit that mark fourteen times this season and fallen short five times: Week 1 against the Raiders; Week 3 against the Steelers when they lost four fumbles; Week 5 in a 23-20 win over the Bills; Week 9 against the Falcons with two turnovers; their Wild Card win over the Chargers with two turnovers. If they protect the ball, they have a good shot of getting to 30 points, but that’s a big if on the heels of Drake Maye’s two interceptions and SIX fumbles through two playoff games. That doesn’t bode well against a Broncos’ defense with the third-best adjusted sack rate in the league. The Denver defense has always left me a little cold, though, and last season it was because of poor performances against quality quarterbacks. From last year’s playoff preview of the Bills-Broncos matchup: “They had some big failures against teams with aggressive, talented quarterbacks though…They also gave up an average of 31 points per game in six games against Geno Smith, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, and Joe Burrow.” Drake Maye certainly qualifies as both talented and aggressive, and this season the Broncos were carved up by aggressive passers again. In 9 games against passers who averaged 8 or more air yards per attempt, the Broncos gave up 29 (Daniel Jones), 17 (Jalen Hurts), 32 (Jaxson Dart), 24 (Dak Prescott), 15 (Davis Mills), 26 (Marcus Mariota), 26 (Jordan Love), 34 (Trevor Lawrence), and 30 (Josh Allen) points. That’s 25.9 points per game, and 27.4 points per game if you remove backups Davis Mills and Marcus Mariota. Drake Maye averaged 9.1 air yards per attempt, the highest mark of any full-time starter, and he’s more talented than any of the above quarterbacks besides Josh Allen. It’s not like all of those performances came behind great offensive lines, either; New England’s offensive line ranked 24th in adjusted sack rate allowed, not far behind the Giants (23rd), Bills (21st), Commanders (20th), and Jaguars (17th).
There’s a scenario where the Broncos’ defense smothers downfield opportunities and mucks the game up enough for Denver to win something like 23-16. I think it’s more likely Drake Maye plays his best playoff game to-date in relatively good weather and against a considerably easier defense than the one he faced last week. I expect the Patriots to win and cover, something like 27-20. Patriots -5.5
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
These two NFC West teams have already played twice this year, splitting the games with a combined score of Rams 58, Seahawks 57. They are first and second in Total DVOA, and the gap between the Rams in second and the Lions in third is bigger than the gap between the Lions and the 15th-ranked Chiefs. It’s a heavyweight battle by any measure, and like the early game, it pits a better quarterback against a better all-around team. Sam Darnold has been pretty good again this year, but he’s thrown 14 interceptions and fumbled 3 times; winning is easier when you get six defensive/special teams touchdowns.
A lot has been made of how good the Seahawks have looked recently, and while it’s not untrue, I think the narrative is somewhat influenced by short attention spans and a bye week. Yes, Seattle went off on the 49ers last week, and yes, they’ve won their last eight games since losing to the Rams in Week 11. They probably should have lost to the Rams again in Week 16, a game the Rams led 30-14 in the fourth quarter, and they had one-score wins over the Titans and Colts in that stretch. That’s not to say they aren’t scary, but I think we should pause before thinking they’re the 1985 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, or even the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. They’re good, but they’re not THAT good, and they gave up 457 passing yards and 581 total yards to the Rams just four games ago.
Speaking of the Rams, the conversation around them might have you believe they’ve forgotten how to play football since they trounced the Buccaneers in Week 12. They’re 5-3 since then, and they lost the three games by 3, 1, and 3 points. In fact, they’ve only lost one game by more than three points all season: back in Week 3 against Philadelphia. Close wins over the Panthers and Bears in the playoffs seem to be getting them less credit than they deserve. They’ll be on the road again this week, but the Panthers have two huge wideouts in Tet McMillan and Jalen Coker and Caleb Williams under pressure is a lot scarier than Sam Darnold. In two games against Seattle, the Rams’ defense has sacked Darnold five times and intercepted him six times. And remember, the Rams’ offense is better than their defense! The only time they didn’t reach 24 points in the last eight games was in truly absurd temperatures in Chicago.
I’m not saying the Rams are going to stomp on the Seahawks like it seemed they would through three quarters of their last meeting, and I’m not saying there’s no way Seattle wins by a touchdown at home. I just think the Rams have been a better team over the course of this season, and if they can avoid special teams blunders, their huge quarterback advantage should carry them to a win. I’d rather count on Sam Darnold making a big mistake than a special teams touchdown. Rams +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
