2025 NFL Picks Super Bowl: Revenge for Seattle
We made it. 284 games, a pretty bad win rate, and a Super Bowl between one quarterback in his second season and another on his fifth team. We don’t need to belabor how we got here, but if this season has given you Twilight Zone vibes, it's justified; both the Seahawks and Patriots were 60:1 to win the Super Bowl coming into the year. Let’s dig into the matchup to see which side will come out on top!
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 “vs.” New England Patriots
Each of these teams has fought an easy case for why they don't belong here. In Seattle, it seemed crazy to think Sam Darnold would represent a big enough upgrade over Geno Smith to put the Seahawks’ offense over the top. He had good numbers in Minnesota last year, but he was throwing to Justin Jefferson, threw 12 interceptions, and really flamed out in his last two games against the Lions and Rams. He managed to throw 14 interceptions this season, but with Jaxon Smith-Njigba turning into the West Coast version of Justin Jefferson, he also set a career high in completion percentage and hasn’t lost a game since Week 11. I’ve been waiting all postseason for him to rediscover his worst habits, but his performance against the Rams in the NFC Championship was close to flawless. Of course there’s a chance he’ll fall apart this weekend and throw three interceptions, but it would be more surprising now than it was last year.
For the Patriots, any skepticism starts with who they’ve played against to get here. Their regular season schedule was incredibly easy with only four games against playoff teams: the Bills twice, the 8-9 Panthers, and the 10-7 Steelers. You can only play the teams on your schedule, but they went 2-2 in those games and then got lucky with their matchups in the playoffs. The Chargers were without both starting offensive tackles, the Texans didn’t have Nico Collins, and the Broncos were missing Bo Nix. It isn’t their fault, and some Drake Maye detractors took it too far, but it’s fair to wonder how the Patriots will look against a top-tier team with a full slate of starters. Their two games against the Bills are the closest thing we have to an example of that, and they split those games with a combined score of Buffalo 55, New England 54. The Bills finished 8th in Total DVOA at 12.6%; the gap between them and Seattle at 41.3% (1st place) is larger than the gap between the Bills and the Giants at -15.1% (26th). Whether it’s their fault or not, New England’s strength of schedule is important in how we evaluate them.
Let’s look at New England’s offense facing off against Seattle’s defense. The Seahawks are first in Defensive DVOA, and until the playoffs, New England hadn’t faced anyone in their neighborhood. Then they played the Texans (2nd) in the Divisional Round and the Broncos (5th) in the Championship game, and the results were...mixed at best? The 28-12 final score of their win over Houston looks good, but they benefitted from five Houston turnovers and still managed just 248 yards and 21 offensive points. The last quarter and a half of the Denver game was impacted by some heavy snowfall, but you’d hope for more than 206 yards and 10 points in the other 40 minutes. Those defenses are different from Seattle’s, and my eye test suggests the Seahawks aren’t quite the Texans on that side of the ball, but it’s reasonable to say the Patriots have really struggled against defenses of this quality.
New England’s defense has been impressive since Derrick Henry nearly ran them into the ground in Week 16, and if there’s a way to bring out the worst in Sam Darnold, it’s pressure and sticky man coverage. They had six sacks against the Chargers and three each against the Texans and Broncos; Seattle’s offensive line isn't quite as good as Denver's, but they’re better than the Patriots’ other two opponents. New England will need to cause some confusion if they want to generate the kind of pressure that rattles Sam Darnold, because if they don't, they face a different problem in this game than anything they've seen this year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a beast this season, and he's continued to perform in two playoff games. I mentioned above that New England’s weak schedule was commonly brought up by Drake Maye detractors, but their opponents were equally weak on offense. Some of that was a last-place schedule and some of it was scheduling luck, as they faced Joe Flacco instead of Joe Burrow, Tyler Huntley instead of Lamar Jackson, and Jarrett Stidham instead of Bo Nix. Besides those backups and Josh Allen, who finished 13th in passing DVOA, the Patriots faced Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Michael Penix Jr., Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart, Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, Justin Herbert, and C.J. Stroud. Stroud is the only quarterback besides Josh Allen to crack the top 20 in passing DVOA, and his top receiver that day was Jayden Higgins. That’s important, because the Patriots have been atrocious against #1 Wide Receivers this season, ranking 31st against them. The best combinations New England faced this season were Tua (24th) and Tyreek Hill (13th or so, hard with such a small sample), Penix (15th) and Drake London (48th), and Baker (25th) and Emeka Egbuka (115th, somehow). Those three receivers averaged a line of 7-114-1.33. Sam Darnold and JSN are 9th and 4th in DVOA, respectively.
In summary, it’s hard to see New England’s defense dominating against Seattle at a neutral site the way they did at home against the Chargers and Texans or on the road against Jarrett Stidham. If they aren’t creating turnovers and short fields, it’s equally hard to see New England’s offense performing better against the Seahawks than they did against the Texans or Broncos. So yes, I’ve been terrible on picks this year, and yes, I’ve been waiting for the Sam Darnold regression all season. But if it was going to happen, it was against the Rams last week. Seattle 31, New England 13.
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
