2025 NFL Picks Divisional Weekend: House Money
Wow, it’s been a really long time since a game I was so invested in went so dramatically my way. The Bears’ comeback got us off to a 2-0 start last weekend and we finished 4-2 with a couple of close losses. We only have seven games left in the season, so .500 is well out of reach, but maybe we could carry some mythical momentum from a strong finish into next year!
Denver Broncos -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Last season, the 10-7 Broncos traveled to take on the 13-4 Bills in the Wild Card round. Buffalo was favored by 9, we took them, and they covered easily. Denver’s defense is actually a little worse this season by DVOA, and the 2025 Bills are a worse team on both sides of the ball than the 2024 edition. One of the two big questions I asked last year was, “what do you think of Bo Nix?” I don’t think he’s shown the kind of development this season that would make him more any more competitive with Josh Allen, and I can’t pass up the opportunity to take Joshy and the Bills getting points against a team I still consider somewhat fraudulent. Maybe Denver’s defense really belongs in the Houston-Seattle tier, and maybe Bo Nix can improve on a performance that left the Broncos’ offense 15th in DVOA this season, but I’m not counting on it. Bills +1.5
Seattle Seahawks -7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers played a really impressive game against the Eagles last week, and in two games this season they haven’t let the Seahawks get past 13 points. There has to be a limit to the punishment a team can take, though, right? The 49ers lost George Kittle in their win last week, leaving them with Christian McCaffrey and hopefully Ricky Pearsall as offensive weapons. Seattle’s defense is legitimately scary, which is why they covered a spread this large just a few weeks ago despite scoring just 13 points. I kind of hope I’m proven wrong, because I’d love to see Kyle Shanahan pull this off, but I think they’ve reached a critical mass of injuries they can’t overcome. Seahawks -7
New England Patriots -3 vs. Houston Texans
New England’s defense played better than I thought they would against the Chargers, and the Texans’ offense isn’t much better. Houston only finished two spots ahead of Los Angeles in Offensive DVOA, but they were considerably better in some pass protection metrics. If C.J. Stroud can stay upright a little more than Justin Herbert did, the Texans won’t be held to the same three points. Getting a full field goal like they are here, I think 17 from Houston will be enough. The Patriots managed just 16 points and 381 yards on 10 drives last weekend against the Chargers’ 10th-ranked defense; the Texans are 2nd in Defensive DVOA, and the gap between them and the Chargers is the same as the gap between the Chargers and the 24th-ranked Dolphins. I’m a little nervous taking Stroud, especially with Nico Collins injured, but I have too much faith in the Houston defense to pass up a full field goal. Texans +3
Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I’ve been all over the place on this game. I took the Bears last week and regretted it for about 56 minutes of game time. Does that mean I was dead wrong, or does the final score better represent what this Chicago team is? We lost T.J. Edwards and Ozzy Trapilo last week, which certainly won’t help, but we still have home field advantage and an offense well-suited to attack the Rams. The NFC Los Angeles team hasn’t held a non-Cardinals opponent under 27 points since Week 12 against Tampa Bay. I don’t have an easy explanation for that, but against this Bears team it could be a problem. I’ll be counting more on the weather than any defensive scheme to slow down Matthew Stafford and the Rams, but we might be in luck there. The forecast has temperatures in the teens and single-digits, and while I usually don’t count on cold weather to distinctly advantage one team, it might create the right environment for an upset or a close loss. If I’m getting more than a field goal, all I need is a good game from Caleb Williams, a few more drops and miscues in the frigid temperatures, and maybe a big play on Special Teams where the Rams rank 26th. Let’s go Bears! Bears +3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
