2025 NFL Picks Wild Card Weekend: Head vs. Heart
Well, 37 games under .500 certainly isn’t where we hoped to end up. We got off to a terrible start and never recovered, but if you’re looking for a sliver of hope heading into the postseason, we’re 36-27-1 over the last four weeks. Let’s see if we can stay locked in for a positive run through the playoffs!
Carolina Panthers +10.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Ahh, the Saturday morning Wild Card game. Historically this has been a spot for the Texans, but we’re treated to a rematch of Week 13’s Rams-Panthers clash this year. One team is top-5 in Offensive and Defensive DVOA, and the other won the Week 13 game by two points despite ranking 25th in Total DVOA, led by their 22nd-ranked Special Teams. The Rams have both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams in the lineup and have no real excuse to lose this game. They also probably shouldn’t be giving this many points on the road; they were 4-4 in true road games this year with wins over Cam Ward, Cooper Rush, Mac Jones, and Jacoby Brissett. Yes, they can absolutely win this game by two touchdowns. I’m not interested in counting on it, and there’s a big opening for a Bryce Young backdoor cover with help from Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker. Panthers +10.5
Chicago Bears +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
It just isn’t fair to put me in a position to pick Bears’ games in the postseason. How am I supposed to stay rational? Chicago lost to the Packers in Green Bay by seven before Micah Parsons got injured, beat a mostly-Malik-Willis-led version of Green Bay with a miraculous onside kick recovery, and ended up winning the NFC North. The Packers are a scary team, and Jordan Love probably won’t gift the Chicago defense the interceptions they’ve been so reliant on this year. But getting points at home against a bad defense? Counting on Caleb Williams to put up a dud with Rome Odunze back in the lineup? I just can’t do it, this line is too much of an insult. Bears +1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has one advantage in this matchup, and it’s at quarterback. I have no explanation for why that would be enough to tilt a game in Jacksonville towards the Bills. The Jaguars are better in total DVOA (6th to 8th), weighted DVOA (3rd to 8th), Defensive DVOA (6th to 20th) and Special Teams DVOA (5th to 15th). They’re playing at home where they went 7-1 this year and where the weather should be a weird shift for the visiting Bills, who lost to the Falcons, Dolphins, and Texans on the road. Maybe Josh Allen is such a level up from Trevor Lawrence that it just doesn’t matter, but we’re not going to bet on it. Jaguars +1.5
Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
There is a version of the Eagles that will cover this spread against a banged-up Niners team with no trouble. If Trent Williams is out along with all of San Francisco’s defensive stars, there’s a real chance for a total shutdown from Vic Fangio’s defense. We just haven’t seen that version of Philly much this season. They won seven games this season by more than five points, and only three since their Week 9 bye, against Jared Goff, Kenny Pickett, and Marcus Mariota. If Kyle Shanahan can scheme anything up for Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, it’s hard to picture the Eagles’ offense running smoothly enough for four quarters to win comfortably. 49ers +5
New England Patriots -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This was the hardest pick of the week for me, and the one Yax and I left out of our joint picks on the podcast. It’s hard to properly evaluate the Patriots because of how easy their schedule was; they were led by their offense, but the average defense they faced ranked between 20th and 21st in DVOA on the season. The best quarterback they beat by more than seven points was rookie Jaxson Dart. I’m not excited to take Justin Herbert and the Chargers on the road in a playoff game, but I’m not sure New England’s 23rd-ranked defense and 26th-ranked pass rush will be able to fully take advantage of the Chargers’ offensive line injuries. The most likely outcome to me is that the game comes down to a field goal, so we’ll take the extra half-point. Chargers +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. Houston Texans
The Pittsburgh Steelers are right where they want to be, home underdogs in the opening round of the playoffs. I think they deserve to be underdogs, though. Houston ended the season with two more wins, they’re better in Total, Defensive, and Special Teams DVOA, and there isn’t a glaring health advantage for either team. I think Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers are getting more of a boost than they should for (barely) beating the Ravens twice in the last five weeks of the season, and unless T.J. Watt returns to 2024 form or C.J. Stroud really falls apart, Houston should win comfortably by entirely shutting down the Pittsburgh offense. It’s a big line for the less-experienced team on the road, but the Steelers have one win over a playoff qualifier all season. Texans -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
