2026 NFL Picks Week 9: Road Favorites, Big Favorites, and One Big Road Favorite
Honestly I’m still reeling from the afternoon slate last Sunday. Around 6 PM Central I started the bedtime routine with our son. The Chiefs and Patriots both had 24-13 leads, the Chiefs had the ball, and the Patriots had just ended a third consecutive with a touchdown. When I came back, Kansas City had lost outright and Miami had scored a touchdown just before the two-minute warning to cover the spread. It was a good reminder that no lead is safe, especially with the line factored in. Let’s see if we can improve on that performance this week.
Baltimore Ravens +10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The stats on big favorites this year have been bad; we’ll get to the actual numbers a little further down. Most of those games haven’t featured a team’s third-string quarterback playing against a Super Bowl contender on a short week. Sorry Joe Fagnano, I don’t see you keeping this game any more competitive than you did the Bills’ game four days ago. Jaguars -10
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
If you’re putting real money on the Atlanta Falcons in 2026, you might have a gambling problem. They’re 3-5 on the year, but 3-3 since Michael Penix Jr. came back from his injury to rescue them from Cooper Rush. They dominated the Packers and Saints on the road and knocked off the previously-unbeaten 49ers in Atlanta. They also lost a tough home game to Tyler Huntley’s Ravens, fell behind the Bears 31-7 before garbage time, and most recently lost to the Buccaneers without allowing a completed pass. The Bengals aren’t much more reliable after narrowly losing a shootout to the Tennessee Titans. I’m leaning Falcons here because they’ve been better against pass-first teams (Packers, Saints) and the Bengals love to throw. It isn’t much, but it’s the best data point I can find in a real mystery box of a matchup in Madrid. Falcons +3
New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Cleveland Browns
It sounds like Shedeur Sanders will be making a spot-start for the Browns after eight weeks of firmly meh quarterback play from Deshaun Watson. Sanders rarely reached that level of competence in his rookie season, and now he’s traveling to New Orleans to face the Saints coming off a bye. Tyler Shough and company haven’t been impressive of late, but it’s amazing what a bye week and facing a backup quarterback can do for your team. Saints -3
Indianapolis Colts +4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Whether or not the Colts trade Jonathan Taylor, this line is too big for the Cowboys on the road. Of course they can win by a touchdown against a limited Indianapolis team keeping its best trade assets healthy, but they also could have beaten the Cardinals last week. Their defense is just plain bad, and I won’t lay this many points on the road when a backdoor cover is so easy to envision. Colts +4.5
Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
I can think of few things I want to do less in the realm of hypothetical sports betting than back Bo Nix as a road favorite. Unfortunately, the Panthers have looked rough in back-to-back weeks against the Bucs and Packers, and Denver’s only two losses this season came against the Chiefs and the 49ers, teams demonstrably better than Carolina. If it follows the usual script, I’ll be regretting my pick for three quarters before the Broncos find a way to squeak out a win over a team who can’t close the deal. Broncos -2.5
Miami Dolphins +7 vs. Detroit Lions
Now we get to the big favorites we have some issues with. I love what the Lions have done this year, and the adjustments they made to run all over Brian Flores’s defense last week were inspired. They also have only one win by 7+ points all season, and they’re coming off back-to-back physical games against the Packers and Vikings. I still don’t really believe in the Dolphins, but they’re at home and they’ve been competitive against the Patriots, Jets, Bengals, and Vikings in recent weeks. They can continue the trend of big favorites falling short of covering; teams favored by 7+ points are 8-21-1 against the spread through Week 8. Dolphins +7
Philadelphia Eagles +3 vs. New York Giants
The only people less interested in this game than me might be the members of the 2026-27 Philadelphia Eagles. Joe Milton is making the start for Philly this week, and their team has looked uninterested in consecutive big losses to the Panthers, Cowboys, and Commanders. The Giants are probably on the same level as those teams, and their best players are much healthier than the Eagles’. I never thought I’d say this, but I’m taking J.J. McCarthy to cover as a road favorite against Philadelphia. Giants -3
Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs. New York Jets
Another big favorite, another chance to pick the underdog. Aaron Glenn is almost certainly going to lose his job and the Jets haven’t won a road game since Week 1, but they’ve also only lost one game by 10+ points all year. If the Chiefs still had Tyquan Thornton and their entire offensive line healthy, I’d be comfortable taking them despite the points. In their current state, they’ll probably win by a touchdown after controlling most of the game. Jets +10
Washington Commanders +4.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
This sounds absurd given the discourse this season, but…are the Los Angeles Rams underrated? They’re 4-4, but in seven non-Australia games they have a point differential of +46. They’ve had close losses to the Broncos and Bills, and another one in a bizarre divisional game against the Cardinals. The Commanders strike me as a team that will roll over when they fall behind by two scores, and even without Davante Adams the Rams can manage that. I think this line should be closer to a touchdown. Rams -4.5
Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 vs. Houston Texans
Were the Chargers the Dolphins all along? For most of the season I said the Dolphins had to prove to me they could cover any line before I’d consider taking them, and they’ve mostly made me reconsider since Week 4. The Chargers, on the other hand, only seem to be getting worse. I’ve been burned by the Texans in these picks and in fantasy this season, but if you need your defense to bounce back in a big way, the best solution is playing the Chargers. Houston can absolutely dominate this game like they did their Week 5 matchup against the Titans, which they won 26-3. Texans -5.5
Seattle Seahawks -9 vs. Arizona Cardinals
In Week 2 I took the Cardinals in Arizona because I thought they were undervalued against Seattle’s backup quarterback, Drew Lock. They lost, 31-7. Now they’re traveling to Seattle and Drew Lock is under center again. The Seahawks will almost certainly be looking to make a point after a tough home loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football, but I just can’t take a backup quarterback favored by this many points in a rollercoaster season. Even the Week 2 matchup was close through three quarters, and close is all we need. Cardinals +9
New England Patriots -3 vs. Green Bay Packers
It hurts me to do this, but the Packers’ defense has been playing well, they have the rest advantage, and they certainly have the better set of playmakers. I’d take Drake Maye over Jordan Love, but a lot of the other factors favor Green Bay. I hope the Pats win, but I have a hard time seeing it happen comfortably. Packers +3
San Francisco 49ers -10 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Oh look, it’s another team with defensive issues listed as a big favorite! Should I expect the Raiders to win in San Francisco with the Niners coming off a bye? Absolutely not! But can I see them covering there like the Cardinals and Commanders have already? You bet! The Raiders have enough juice offensively to keep things interesting, and we’ve already discussed how big favorites have performed this season. Raiders +10
Chicago Bears -6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When you’re emotionally invested in a team, it’s important to avoid getting carried away whether they’ve looked good or bad. But holy crap! The Bears looked amazing in Seattle last week, led by Caleb and now Jeffery Simmons! If the offense can move the ball that way against the Seahawks, I feel good about what they can do at home this week even if the Bucs have been great on that side of the ball recently. On the other side, I can’t say I feel great about the return of Baker Mayfield after 14 pass attempts in two games. If he’s forced to throw and looks anything like he did before his injury, the Bears can blow them out even on short rest. Bears -6.5
Minnesota Vikings +3 vs. Buffalo Bills
Strength on strength and weakness on weakness: Minnesota’s 3rd-ranked defense faces Buffalo’s 3rd-ranked offense, and Buffalo’s 20th-ranked defense faces Minnesota’s 30th-ranked offense. Both have good special teams, but all I want to do is watch Brian Flores go against Josh Allen. The Texans put the Bills in a bind each of the past two years, and this Minnesota defense might be scarier to face than those units were. A full field goal at home is too much to pass up in what might be a battle of the kickers. Let’s go NFC North! Vikings +3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
