2026 NFL Picks Week 5: Contenders Clash
Sigh. We had some close calls last week, as I rehashed in the podcast, but that’s the way it goes picking games against the spread. We’re off to a bad start this week after the Bucs stifled the Cowboys in Dallas, but we have fourteen more picks to go. Let’s see what we can do!
Dallas Cowboys -8.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Cowboys’ offense had been dynamite at home, the Buccaneers were giving undrafted free agent rookie Jalon Daniels his second career start, and Dallas drove 70 yards on their opening drive for a touchdown. Naturally the Bucs outscored them 24-3 after that and held on for an 8-point win. That’s the NFL for you. Cowboys -8.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This line is probably too high. The Eagles have been getting a ton of bad press after blowing a lead to the Rams, losing Lane Johnson to retirement, and trading Cam Jurgens. Their offense looks aimless and their defense is far from the dominant force most people thought they could be coming into the season. I want to pick the Eagles here, on a neutral field in England, but…they’re just so damn hard to watch. Is there any reason Liam Coen can’t implement Ben Johnson’s Case Keenum gameplan and get similar results with better talent? The Jacksonville defense is better than Chicago’s, and if Trevor Lawrence can just avoid big mistakes they should come away with a big win. Jaguars -7.5
Green Bay Packers +1 vs. Chicago Bears
I would be perplexed if you told me in Week 1 that the Bears, without Caleb Williams available, would be favored in Lambeau by Week 5. The Packers’ defense and offensive line have been bad enough to justify it, though. Ben Johnson has proven his ability to design a gameplan around his backup quarterbacks, and while I still don’t love our defense, Dennis Allen should be able to scheme up plenty of pressure. My head is telling me to run away from this line, but my heart is winning out. Bears -1
Miami Dolphins +6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Miami was a little lucky to cover a much bigger spread against the Vikings last week, with T.J. Hockenson’s (smart!) decision to go down at the 2-yard line costing me a winning week. Cincinnati is a lot scarier on offense, and even if their defense has some gaps, it’s good enough to stop Malik Willis and the “weapons” in Miami. Don’t overthink it, this line should be over a touchdown. Bengals -6.5
New York Jets -2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Amazon Prime’s coverage of Deshaun Watson was grossly inadequate last week, and also misses an important fact: he still isn’t playing very well. The Browns have relied on YAC and big plays from rookies to reach a 3-1 record despite a -14 point differential. Luck can only carry you so far, and Cleveland’s best unit, the defense, has been notably worse on the road for multiple seasons now. It’s always a wild ride backing Geno, but here goes nothing. Jets -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The rest advantage here is too dramatic to ignore: Pittsburgh played in Cleveland last Thursday, and Indianapolis played in London last Sunday. With two comparable teams, a home field advantage and that massive rest gap should produce a higher line than this. Steelers -2.5
Tennessee Titans +7.5 vs. Houston Texans
I’m really torn on this one. Every part of me wants to count on the Texans’ defense to take all of their frustrations out on Cam Ward and strangle the Tennessee offense, and C.J. Stroud has been playing well enough to get Houston over 20 points. There’s something just off about Houston, though, and until I see some more proof I have to stop backing the Texans. Should they cover this line in Tennessee? Absolutely. Will they? I’m not willing to bet on it. Titans +7.5
New Orleans Saints +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Before the Saints’ defense was obliterated by the Raiders and Falcons in consecutive weeks, this would have been my ideal moment to zag on the Vikings. Minnesota’s offense is still pretty bad, and their defense has been great but not really tested by a good offense in good weather. If the Vikings score some points here, though, we might see Tyler Shough’s worst tendencies come out in a big way. I’m not sure he’s ready for what Brian Flores has in store. Vikings -2.5
Washington Commanders -4 vs. New York Giants
First thought: why are the Commanders favored by so much with a backup quarterback?! Second thought: oh, Jayden Daniels is back. Third thought: wait, did I miss something where the Commanders were good before he got injured? Washington has a big rest disadvantage, Jayden Daniels is back but maybe not 100%, and the Giants are getting more than a field goal. Giants +4
New England Patriots -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This one feels like a bit of an overreaction to New England’s decent win over the Bills last week. Las Vegas has played like the better team all year, they beat the Patriots in Foxboro last season, and they’re getting more than a field goal. Let’s not pretend the Pats are Super Bowl contenders again just yet. Raiders +3.5
Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs. Denver Broncos
I guess the oddsmakers were really impressed by the Chargers’ performance in garbage time last week! I was not - this team sucks, and they even suck enough for me to back Bo Nix as a road favorite. Broncos -3
Arizona Cardinals +5.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Arizona has a lot of problems, but they’ve only really struggled offensively this season in a home loss to the Seahawks. Detroit’s defense is basically the opposite of that. The Lions should win this game, but with so much back and forth offense I don’t feel comfortable laying so many points on the road. Cardinals +5.5
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks haven’t quite found the gear they were in down the stretch last year, but their defense is still scary and their offense scored pretty easily last week before garbage time. I love what the 49ers have done on offense, as usual, but they were also great last year…outside of the three games against Mike MacDonald’s defense in which they scored 26 total points. San Francisco is injured again, and it’s enough for me to say “prove it” against the only team who consistently gives them problems. Seahawks -3
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Tyler Huntley has been a solid backup quarterback in relief of Lamar Jackson for a while now. He completes easy passes, doesn’t turn the ball over, and knows how to operate the offense. The Ravens’ defense, meanwhile, has been pretty good. Pretty good on both sides of the ball should be enough to bring the Falcons back down to earth after two huge wins against the Packers and Saints. Ravens +3
Los Angeles Rams -3 vs. Buffalo Bills
How about that game-sealing interception from Joshy last week?! Really great decision-making on display. Obviously he’s still an MVP candidate, and he could win this game on his own, but I think it’s more likely the Rams re-introduce themselves as a top contender. Stafford has Puka, Davante, and Kyren all healthy, and I think they’ll put on a show against a susceptible Bills’ defense. Rams -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
