2025 NFL Picks Week 1: Good News, Everyone!
Last Season: 143-133-8
This Week:
It’s strange looking at it now, but I was pretty disappointed in our performance last year after hitting on 55% of the picks in 2023-24. The good news in our title is simple: the NFL is back! We could all use a distraction these days, and with every team 0-0 and the first game just days away, hope is easy to come by. Let’s jump into Week 1!
Philadelphia Eagles -7 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Before the Micah Parsons trade, I was nervous about taking the Eagles as such big favorites in a divisional matchup. While the loss of Parsons alone isn’t enough to make me rethink the spread, it’s a reminder that the Cowboys are a generally idiotic team run by a rich guy who dramatically overestimates his own abilities. Dallas is a worse team at almost every position, and I have no reason to believe Brian Schottenheimer is going to crack the code of Vic Fangio’s defense. Eagles -7
Los Angeles Chargers +3 “vs.” Kansas City Chiefs (Brazil)
Another divisional matchup, this time at the neutral site in Brazil where Jordan Love injured his groin to open up the 2024-25 season. Hopefully the field is in better shape this year and we don’t have any season-altering injuries this time around. Speaking of season-altering injuries: Rashawn Slater is out for the season, and losing a top-tier offensive tackle from a middling offense is a bad place for the Chargers to start. The Chiefs have won their last seven games in this rivalry, and while I’m a little scared at the full field goal (two of those wins came by less than three points), I’m not ready to jump on the Justin Herbert train again. Chiefs -3
Atlanta Falcons +2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m always a little tempted by home underdogs, and the rest of the variables are falling into place on this one. Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin are out for the Bucs, who are starting the season with their third offensive coordinator in three years. Tampa’s defense was solid last year, but the Falcons have won four of the last five meetings between these teams. Taking them as home underdogs feels okay. Falcons +2
Cleveland Browns +5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This line is entirely a product of Cincinnati’s terrible starts in the last two years, and while it could just be noise, it’s hard to forget losses to the Browns (Week 1 2023), Titans (Week 3 2023), and Patriots (Week 1 2024). I just have to believe they’ll start this year a little better, and the Browns could be truly terrible this season. Joe Flacco turns 41 in January, their second-round pick is still out because of off-field issues, and the defense hasn’t gotten younger since their surprising 2023 season. Joe Burrow and the Cincy offense should be able to win by a touchdown. Bengals -5
Indianapolis Colts -1 vs. Miami Dolphins
If you listened to our AFC over/unders podcast, you know I’m not a big believer in the Dolphins this year. But most of that has to do with what I expect from them over the course of the whole season, not in Week 1. How are the Dolphins, who still flashed an impressive offense in Tua’s games last season, underdogs to Daniel Jones and the Colts? Has anyone been watching Daniel Jones the last couple of years? I try not to overthink when the better team is getting points, and that’s the situation here. Dolphins +1
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Two ex-Buccaneers Offensive Coordinators facing off here, with Dave Canales leading the Panthers for a second season against Liam Coen in his head coaching debut for the Jaguars. I’m optimistic that the offense in Jacksonville will look better with Coen calling plays instead of the Doug Pedersen-Press Taylor combination, but there are some deeper issues that need addressing there to turn around a team that went 4-13. The Panthers also aren’t great, even with Bryce Young’s improvement, but these teams seem pretty comparable on paper which would put the line at 2.5. I’m not excited about it, but maybe there’s some value in getting more than a field goal. Panthers +3.5
New England Patriots -2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Ah, the offseason darlings in New England here. Drake Maye showed some flashes in his rookie year, Mike Vrabel is taking over for Jerod Mayo, and the return to winning football in New England is here! Or is it? New England went 4-13 last year and finished 29th in DVOA. I don’t think Jerod Mayo was a good head coach, but what evidence do I really have to go on? This roster had a lot of holes and they still do this year, because they’ve only had one draft since then. The makeover in Las Vegas is more dramatic: they also replaced their one-year head coach with a proven winner, moving from Antonio Pierce to Pete Carroll, and they upgraded from Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew to Geno Smith at quarterback. The Raiders were a slightly better team last year and they made more significant improvements in the offseason, so I’m happy to take the standard road line here. Raiders +2.5
New Orleans Saints +6.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Ick. My outlook is much rosier on the Cardinals, but giving almost a full seven on the road is a little scary. I’m sure the Saints won’t be good for the whole season, but with everyone healthy and playing at home, I think they can keep things close with a team who finished 12th in DVOA. Saints +6.5
New York Jets +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The rare QB swap in Week 1! Justin Fields started six games for the Steelers last season, and we all know how Aaron Rodgers’ time with the Jets went. Pittsburgh is trying to keep their streak of non-losing seasons alive, and New York is trying to get back on track under new Head Coach Aaron Glenn. What I can’t figure out about this line is: if people thought the Jets were Super Bowl contenders with Aaron Rodgers last year, why has the rest of the team fallen off so much to make them underdogs to an even older Aaron Rodgers this year? I like Pittsburgh’s defense as much as anyone, but these teams are too comparable for me to pass up a field goal. Jets +3
Washington Commanders -6 vs. New York Giants
I think the Giants’ improvements are flying a bit under the radar coming into this season. Abdul Carter sounds like a real dude, and going from Daniel Jones to even this version of Russell Wilson is a huge upgrade. They’re also bringing back Andrew Thomas after an injury, and with Malik Nabers already in house they could reach competence in a few areas! With regression coming for the Commanders and two surprisingly close games last year, I like the Giants getting this many points in a divisional game. Giants +6
Denver Broncos -8 vs. Tennessee Titans
I really think the Broncos have a chance to be the best defense in the league this year, and they get to face a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward to start off the season. Unless he’s a truly special talent, this is a great opportunity to open the year with a big win over a team that went 3-14 last year. As for the Titans, you’re really just hoping for flashes of NFL ability from your #1 overall pick. Points will come later against worse opponents. Broncos -8
Seattle Seahawks +2 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners still have a lot of talent on paper, but relying heavily on an aging Trent Williams, George Kittle, and whatever version of Christian McCaffrey they still have sounds dangerous. They’ve also lost a lot of defensive talent outside of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner and eventually that starts to catch up to you. I’d usually like them to make things too ugly for a soft Seahawks offensive line, but opening the season as home underdogs is a pretty big slap in the face. Seattle’s defense is good enough to keep them in the game, so we’ll take the points. Seahawks +2
Green Bay Packers -2.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Okay, Micah Parsons is in town. Jordan Love is healthy. Jeff Hafley is in his second season as the Packers’ defensive coordinator. The excuses are all gone, right? The Lions went 15-2 last year despite losing nearly every key member of their defense, and they’re starting the season as underdogs against a team they’ve beaten in six of their last seven meetings. I’m nervous taking the Lions in their first game without Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, but I think they’re a more talented roster and I know Dan Campbell will be thrilled to be in an underdog role here. Lions +2.5
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs. Houston Texans
This is definitely one of the games I’m most excited to watch this weekend. Matthew Stafford has been battling some back issues, but seems on track to play in Week 1. Houston comes into this season with basically the same profile as last year’s team, a top-5 defense and some huge question marks along the offensive line that undermine what C.J. Stroud can do. If the Texans can get their protection schemes in a little better order, they have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Rams. Will Stafford be able to do the same against Houston’s pass rush? I like the points. Texans +2.5
Buffalo Bills -1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Ooh what a Sunday Night Football matchup we have! A rematch of a great game from last year’s Divisional Round, and a showdown of two perennial MVP candidates. This is the kind of game I’d rather not make a pick on because I just want to enjoy the show, but we don’t skip games here. I’m taking the Ravens and an offense I view as more dangerous at the skill positions. Ravens +1
Chicago Bears +1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I just don’t believe in J.J. McCarthy at all. I like Ben Johnson going against Brian Flores (the Lions averaged 30.5 ppg against the Vikings in their last four meetings), and I like facing the Vikings without Jordan Addison, but McCarthy is really the basis of this pick. He’s starting his first-ever NFL game and I wasn’t thrilled about him in college, so let’s pick against him while we can. Bears +1.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
