2025 NFL Picks Week 2: Sifting Through the Rubble
Last Week: 2-12-2
This Week:
Well, that was a rough way to start! 2-12-2 puts us in a deep hole to start the year, but it’s a long season and it’s only tied for my lowest win total since we started picking every game back in 2018-19. So now we just need to figure out which results were bad picks, which were bad luck, and which were just your normal Week 1 wackiness.
Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders
I was really hoping for a backdoor here. I might have more faith in the Green Bay defense than their offense at this point, but we won’t have much of a litmus test for their ceiling on both sides of the ball until Week 10 against the Eagles. Washington struggled on offense all game, and we’re starting this week down again. Commanders +3.5
New York Jets +6.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
One week isn’t enough to decide whether Justin Fields’ performance against Pittsburgh means the Jets will have a good offense this season, but it’s definitely a positive sign. I expect him to struggle more against top-10 defenses who know what to expect from a first-time playcaller, but do we really think the Bills check either of those boxes? Buffalo was ground into a fine paste by the Ravens, who leverage their supremely athletic quarterback in a dynamic running game. Fields can’t match Lamar Jackson’s passing, but he presents some of the same issues in the running game. I don’t expect Buffalo to lose a game like this as long as Josh Allen is healthy, but this line is too big for a potentially bad defense to cover on the road. Jets +6.5
Detroit Lions -6 vs. Chicago Bears
A classic Week 2 dilemma here. Was Caleb Williams’ performance against the Vikings, who finished 3rd in defensive DVOA last year, more promising than it seemed because of his opponent? Should we expect the Lions to look better on offense when they’re not playing a solid Packers defense bolstered by Micah Parsons? And given the offense’s struggles, was the Lions defense even more impressive in hindsight? I’m not positive how much I should be trusting either of these teams, and with that in mind, I’m going to take the points. Bears +6
Baltimore Ravens -11.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Over the past three seasons (not counting Week 1 or playoffs), the Ravens are 3-3 against the Browns and 32-13 against the rest of the league. The starting quarterbacks for Cleveland in those wins were Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. We talk about divisional shenanigans a lot on the podcast (LINK HERE), but this is on a whole different level. Yes, the Ravens should absolutely win this game going away. They also should have closed out the Bills last week and dominated the Browns for the past three years. Give me the points. Browns +11.5
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
If Cincinnati looks anything like they did in Week 1, this is going to be gross. The Jaguars won easily in Week 1, but they also got to run the ball at will against a Carolina team that seemed to have no interest in tackling. They’ll probably need more from Trevor Lawrence this week, but he and the weapons in Jacksonville can’t keep up with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins…right? The Bengals only managed 7 yards of offense in the second half last week, but I’m hoping they look a little more professional at home in Week 2. Bengals -3.5
Miami Dolphins -1 vs. New England Patriots
The Dolphins probably shouldn’t be favored over anyone after their performance in Week 1, which would usually give me pause here. New England didn’t look great either, but they played a Las Vegas team that might be decent. Miami has dominated this matchup in recent years, but I just have to take points against teams recently dominated by Daniel Jones. Patriots +1
Dallas Cowboys -5.5 vs. New York Giants
Russell Wilson looked far worse than I expected in Week 1, and I didn’t have high hopes. Dak Prescott, on the other hand, looked pretty sharp against a good Eagles’ defense. Unless the Giants change their quarterback early and get instant results, Dallas should be able to score the 20+ points they’ll need to cover this line. Cowboys -5.5
Tennessee Titans +5.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I think Cam Ward played pretty well last week for a rookie starting in Week 1, especially against a scary Denver defense. Unfortunately, his job isn’t much easier this week, facing a Rams team that made Houston’s 2025 offensive line look a lot like their 2024 offensive line. I need Matthew Stafford to throw some dimes in order to cover this spread on the road, but I think the downgrade from Houston’s defense to Tennessee’s is enough to get us there. Rams -5.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle’s defense was really good in Week 1, but Sam Darnold looked like he missed Kevin O’Connell and the offensive infrastructure in Minnesota. Now T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward get to pressure him all game, and while I still think the Pittsburgh offense will go south eventually, Aaron Rodgers should do enough here to win at home. Steelers -3
New Orleans Saints +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
At some point, you’re too injured to be favored on the road. The 49ers might be missing Brock Purdy and George Kittle this week, with both joining Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings on the injury report. I’m always impressed with what Kyle Shanahan can do with backup quarterbacks, but we’re not dropping Mac Jones into the 2023 49ers. I don’t love it, but it’s a home underdog worth taking. Saints +3
Arizona Cardinals -6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I didn’t feel great about laying 6.5 with the Cardinals in New Orleans last week, and somehow they made me regret it despite scoring just 20 points. This matchup is a lot different, though; not only is Arizona at home this week, but the Panthers’ defense is a real disaster. Unless Bryce Young recaptures his second half 2024 form and then some, they’re going to have just as much trouble getting to 20 points as Spencer Rattler and the Saints did. Cardinals -6.5
Indianapolis Colts +1.5 vs. Denver Broncos
This one comes with some intrigue, as the Colts were coasting to a big lead against the Broncos last year before a sloppy fumble from Jonathan Taylor. Coupled with their easy win over the Dolphins last week to kick off the Daniel Jones era, it seems like Indianapolis is in a good spot. Fortunately for us, I think this line has baked those elements in fully. Denver’s defense is going to be a lot harder on Daniel Jones than Miami’s was, and I think we’ll see a better performance out of Bo Nix and/or Sean Payton in this one. It’ll be close, but this line is small. Broncos -1.5
Kansas City Chiefs +1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Every part of me wants to take the Chiefs here. They’re at home, coming off a loss, and presumably eager to avenge what was a pretty embarrassing performance in the Super Bowl. It’s hard to pass on the Chiefs as home underdogs, but I can’t find what to like in this matchup for them. Their defense looked overmatched against an admittedly excellent Justin Herbert, their offense lost Xavier Worthy and is down to Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster as receiving options, and their offensive line is still reliant on a rookie tackle. I can see the game staying close if we get the very vanilla offensive gameplan we saw from Philadelphia in Week 1, but another loss and more exaggerated claims of the demise of the Chiefs’ dynasty seem like the more likely outcome. Hopefully there’s enough of an overreaction to capitalize on Kansas City’s divisional and Super Bowl odds in a couple of weeks! Eagles -1
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I think I’ve made it clear by now, but I really don’t believe in J.J. McCarthy. He was pretty terrible through three quarters against the Bears’ decent defense, and a good fourth quarter isn’t enough to erase my memory. I do, however, have a lot of faith in Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson, and Brian Flores. Nothing I saw in the Bucs-Falcons game last week makes me think Minnesota will be blanked on offense, and while Michael Penix had an encouraging performance, facing Brian Flores and the Vikings’ defense is a different beast. In Minnesota, I expect to see some growing pains from Atlanta’s offense and just enough from the Vikings to cover. Vikings -3.5
Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Can either of these teams block well enough to move the ball against a stingy defense? C.J. Stroud looked good last week but rarely had time to make anything happen, and Baker Mayfield was lucky to escape Atlanta with a win after Tampa Bay managed just 260 total yards. Houston has a scarier defense, Tampa Bay has a scarier offense, and overall these teams are pretty evenly matched, so let’s take the points. Buccaneers +2.5
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams put up strong performances in Week 1, but only one of them played against a team I expect to be good. The Raiders are getting more than a field goal despite being the home team, but I don’t think they have much of a home field advantage in Las Vegas. I always enjoy watching Geno Smith chuck it, but the Chargers love to force short passes and limit big gains. I think he’ll get impatient at least once or twice, and I think Herbert will go back-to-back with big performances before disappointing us later in the year. Chargers -3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
