2025 NFL Picks Week 18: Cats and Dogs, Living Together
Welcome to Week 18! Riley Leonard, Trey Lance, and Clayton Tune are all starting quarterbacks this week. Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen are both starting, but no one knows how long they’ll stay in their games. Chris Oladokun is favored by 5.5 points on the road with both teams better off losing. At least it’s our last 16-game slate of the season, and if we can go 39-0 in those 16 games, we can finish the year at .500. To the picks!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
It seems like these teams are going in opposite directions, but the Panthers aren’t exactly rolling at 4-4 in their last eight games. The Bucs seem determined to find new ways to lose each week since starting the season 6-2, and they could have closed out the Panthers a few different times when they met in Week 16. It doesn’t feel good, but an 8-9 NFC South champion feels right and Carolina has been worse on the road than at home. Buccaneers -2.5
San Francisco 49ers +1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is the better overall team, and usually that’s enough to sway me with a line this small. The 49ers might be the right kind of team to put the Seahawks in a tough place, though. San Francisco’s defense is 27th in DVOA, but they apply pressure and their offense with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle both healthy feels unstoppable. The key to beating Sam Darnold-led teams, whether it’s the Vikings last year or the Seahawks this year, is getting out to a lead and forcing him into mistakes. I think Kyle Shanahan and the Niners will be able to do that at home and improbably grab the NFC’s 1-seed. 49ers +1.5
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Other than a very strange no-show against the Ravens, the Bengals’ offense has been humming since Joe Burrow returned from injury. Cleveland’s defense is good, but they don’t travel well and we’ve seen the Browns fall behind early and lose by a big margin against worse offenses. With Harold Fannin Jr. also out for Cleveland, I expect them to lose by double digits. Bengals -7.5
Houston Texans -10.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I love Houston’s defense, but the Texans aren’t really built to win big. Maybe the Colts throw in the towel with nothing to play for and gift a couple of defensive touchdowns, but it’s more likely to me that we end up with a relatively boring, 23-14 home win for Houston. This is just too many points when the favored team averages only 22.9 points per game. Colts +10.5
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Neither team has anything at stake, but Dallas has somehow displaced the Bengals at the bottom of the defensive DVOA table. I’m not excited to back a Giants’ team who might have made a mistake trouncing the Raiders last week, but getting more than a field goal at home in this matchup feels silly. Even if the Cowboys get a lead, the Giants should be able to rally for a backdoor cover. Giants +3.5
Minnesota Vikings -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
I know the Packers are resting almost everyone, but the Vikings are also on their third-string quarterback and similarly have nothing to play for. I don’t think they’ll benefit from six turnovers again this week, and I know Matt LaFleur has interesting ideas for Clayton Tune to at least move the ball. I’d take Minnesota if it was less than a touchdown, but getting the hook makes Green Bay too enticing here. Packers +7.5
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Just when everyone starts to believe in the Falcons, it’s time to zag. The Saints are missing some of their best players, but Tyler Shough is playing well and I don’t have any confidence in Kirk Cousins. If New Orleans just does a better job protecting the ball than the Rams did last week, they’ll be able to cover this spread in Atlanta. Saints +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -13.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
This should be a good chance to evaluate where the Jaguars really are. I was disappointed they couldn’t cover against Philip Rivers last week, but they almost pulled it out at the end and it’s not like they played badly. Now they need a win over the AFC’s doormat to clinch the AFC South and a home game in the playoffs. If they’re a serious team, that shouldn’t be an issue. Jaguars -13.5
Los Angeles Rams -7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
No one gets blown out like the Jets and the Cardinals in the second half of this season, but I don’t trust Sean McVay to keep his starters in long enough to pick the Rams here. We’re talking about a head coach who has fully rested starters when there was meaningful seeding at stake, and now he’s planning to play his starters despite being locked into a wild card spot? I think we’ll see Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Jared Verse for 1.5 quarters, at most. Cardinals +7.5
Chicago Bears -3 vs. Detroit Lions
If the Lions have really given up on the season, the Bears could try to exact some revenge for a major blowout in Week 2. I just don’t like our defense enough to bank on it against a still-dangerous Detroit offense. The Lions are considerably better by DVOA, their coach doesn’t seem like the type to take his foot off the gas just because they’re eliminated from the playoffs, and the Bears don’t have a lot to play for. Lions +3
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Oladokun is favored by 5.5 points on the road with mediocre weapons and a decent-but-unmotivated defense backing him up. If the Raiders don’t cover this spread, tanking efforts should probably be investigated. Raiders +5.5
New England Patriots -10.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Maybe Quinn Ewers will be the first Miami quarterback to perform well in the New England winter since Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2019. Or maybe the Patriots will take advantage of another mediocre opponent to further Drake Maye’s MVP candidacy and their own chance at the AFC’s 1-seed. If I believed a little more strongly in the New England defense I’d bank on the latter, but without the usual Tua-in-cold-weather factor in play, I think the line here is a little too big. Dolphins +10.5
Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs. New York Jets
I don’t expect Josh Allen or James Cook to play the entire game, but the line is just low enough for me to take Buffalo anyway. In four Brady Cook starts, the Jets are 0-4 with a -107 point differential. If they can just lose by a touchdown (which will help their draft position), we’ll get the cover. Bills -6.5
Denver Broncos -13 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Bo Nix let me down against Chris Oladokun and the Chiefs, but he should be facing an even more impressive slate of backup players this week. The Broncos need a win to secure the 1-seed, none of the Chargers’ most valuable players are starting, and the Denver defense gets to tee off on Trey Lance. It’s reminiscent of Denver’s 38-0 win over Kansas City’s backups in Week 18 last year. Broncos -13
Philadelphia Eagles -4 vs. Washington Commanders
I might hurt my shoulders with how hard this game makes me shrug. Will Philadelphia’s offense actually be less disjointed with Tanner McKee in for Jalen Hurts? I’m not saying better, mind you, just less disjointed. Josh Johnson was better against the Cowboys than I expected, but again, Dallas is 32nd in defensive DVOA. The Eagles are resting most of their important players, but they have enough of a talent advantage that they should still win comfortably at home. Eagles -4
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
We should have known the AFC North would come down to this game after an absolutely wacky season. Are the Ravens better on offense with Snoop Huntley or a compromised Lamar Jackson? Can the Steelers do anything on offense without DK Metcalf? Will Derrick Henry get the ball enough down the stretch to satisfy the rabid old school thinkers? We can’t know the answer to any of those questions, but if it’s a late-season Ravens-Steelers matchup, we know it will be weird and probably close. Let’s take the points. Steelers +3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
