2025 NFL Picks Week 17: Scheduling Gods, Have Mercy!
There it is! Double-digit wins! We’re still more in “celebrating the pass breakup with a flag down behind us” territory than “dropping the ball short of the goal line,” but we’ll take what we can get. This should be our last week of truly chaotic scheduling, with a good chance that five games will be finished before anyone else has a chance to read this. Perhaps more importantly, it’s our second-to-last week picking sixteen games; if we’re going to have any shot at redemption this season, it’s going to be in the playoffs. Let’s get to the picks!
Washington Commanders +9.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This felt like a big line for a Dallas defense that shockingly displaced the Bengals from last place in DVOA, but picking against a 39-year old Josh Johnson proved too tempting. The Cowboys took their foot off the gas after getting out to a 21-3 lead and a 51-yard field goal from Jake Moody sealed our fate. Come on Matt Eberflus, Josh Johnson wasn’t even good in his prime ten years ago! Cowboys -9.5
Minnesota Vikings +7.5 vs. Detroit Lions
I wanted to take the Lions here, but visions of Jared Goff in Brian Flores’s blender kept intruding on my thoughts. It was pretty rude, but ultimately saved me from an 0-3 Christmas Day. The Lions’ defense actually held up their end of the bargain against Max Brosmer, but it’s almost impossible to win when you turn the ball over six times. I guess it’s all about next year for Detroit. Vikings +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 vs. Denver Broncos
I’m so disappointed in myself. I had a chance to pick a good defense getting almost two full touchdowns against Bo Nix and instead I decided to doubt Chris Oladokun. Never forget: the Broncos are frauds, and they showed it here. Broncos -13.5
Los Angeles Chargers -2 vs. Houston Texans
This is an extremely curious amount of respect for the Chargers after they were 2-point underdogs in Dallas last week. Now they’re at home, where they don’t really have a home-field advantage, and they’re favored by two points over a 10-5 team? Something isn’t adding up here, and I can’t wait to watch Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter go against two backup tackles for the Chargers. It’s never easy for the Houston offense, but that’s what the points are for. Texans +2
Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
It sounds like we have probably-not-Jordan-Love facing off against probably-not-Lamar-Jackson for this game. I have a lot of faith in Matt LaFleur to come up with a gameplan for Malik Willis because I’ve seen it before, but is it enough to justify a spread like this? Baltimore has been playing some decent football lately, and I like what Derrick Henry can do more than what I’ve seen from Josh Jacobs. If the Packers had more of their best players healthy I’d be tempted, but this feels high for the current version of their team. Ravens +3.5
Miami Dolphins +6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not sure exactly what happened to the Bucs or Emeka Egbuka this year. They started out hot, and injuries explain some of their issues, but they got a lot of their best players back and just never seemed to improve. They only have one more win than the Dolphins, and they’ve only won two games by more than three points all season. There’s no reason they should be favored by almost a touchdown on the road, even against Quinn Ewers. Dolphins +6
Carolina Panthers +7 vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is a super tempting pick as a trap game for the NFC-leading Seattle Seahawks. Carolina has been better at home than on the road, they’ve beaten good teams in the Packers and Rams, and they’re coming off a big win to put them atop the NFC North. I just don’t believe in Bryce Young against this Seattle defense at all. For as competent as he’s looked in stretches this year, his physical limitations cause real problems against teams that won’t let Carolina run the ball. The Seahawks have the best run defense in the league by DVOA, and the gap between them and number two Denver is bigger than the gap between Denver and the 20th-ranked Jets. Don’t be fooled by the Panthers. Seahawks -7
Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I want to take the Cardinals here so badly. The Cincinnati Bengals, somehow 31st in defensive DVOA thanks to the Cowboys’ ineptitude, are giving a full touchdown to another NFL team. They’re the worse team by total DVOA, and I’m not terribly concerned about Jacoby Brissett playing in cold weather. I also think my wife, a Cardinals fan, is going to be shaking her head at me sadly if I support her team yet again just because they’re getting a lot of points. Arizona has lost seven straight games and only two of those have come by less than seven points. I can’t pick them again this week. Bengals +7
Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I want to pick the Browns, especially at home. Unfortunately, I think the strengths of their defense (their only good unit) don’t line up particularly well with what Pittsburgh wants to do. Aaron Rodgers gets rid of the ball quickly whether he should or not which neutralizes a lot of the chaos Myles Garrett and company generate. I’m not happy about it, but I think the Steelers have shown enough in recent weeks to take them on the road here. Steelers -3
New York Jets +13.5 vs. New England Patriots
Here are the Jets’ results since Brady Cook took over as quarterback: lost by 24 to the Dolphins, lost by 28 to the Jaguars, lost by 23 to the Saints. Sure, they could keep things close for the first time all year here. Do I want to count on it against a 12-3 New England team? Not particularly. Patriots -13.5
Indianapolis Colts +6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ve been waiting for the Jaguars to disappoint me, and while I’m still pretty sure they will, this doesn’t seem like the matchup for it. The Indianapolis defense isn’t particularly good, and I still don’t trust Philip Rivers to keep things close if his opponent gets out to a lead. Jacksonville is playing too well right now to take an old man and a weak defense getting less than a touchdown. Jaguars -6.5
Tennessee Titans +2.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
This is offensive to the Saints, and I don’t even think they’re particularly good. Tennessee is 3-12 after their “big” win over the husk of the Chiefs last week. Tyler Shough has four wins since taking over as the Saints’ starter in Week 9. I don’t think it will be a blowout, but New Orleans can definitely win by a field goal. Saints -2.5
Las Vegas Raiders +1 vs. New York Giants
Dear lord. Both teams should be trying to lose for draft positioning at this point, but why are the 2-13 New York Giants favored over anyone on the road? Maybe Jaxson Dart is just a little overhyped, but in a game between two incredibly incompetent teams, I’ll take the home team and the point. Raiders +1
Buffalo Bills -1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This is the Josh Allen game for me. Philadelphia has the better team, and if they play the way we know they can play, they should come away with a road win. But if Josh Allen is the dude we want him to be, he’s going to find a way to win at home against a tough defense. I can’t wait to watch this one, and I’m expecting some crazy Joshy heroics to get Buffalo a big win. Bills -1
San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Chicago Bears
Ooh baby the Bears came through for me in a big way last week. Of course, they had to spend the majority of the game losing to a backup quarterback, have their kicker make four improbable kicks in wicked conditions, and successfully recover an onside kick to do so, but I’m still levitating just from the vibes of that performance against the Packers. Unfortunately, the 49ers are rolling on offense right now and won’t have any issues against Chicago’s weak defense. I’d be more interested in the Bears at home, and I hope I’m wrong, but I think San Francisco can cover this one in the bay. 49ers -3
Atlanta Falcons +8 vs. Los Angeles Rams
With a 3-2 record since Kirk Cousins took over for Michael Penix Jr., are the Falcons…good? Of course not! They’re just in the NFC South. The Rams have plenty of rest after playing in Seattle last week and they need this win desperately to keep up in the NFC West. I expect Matthew Stafford to put on a show and Jared Verse to wreck anything the Atlanta defense tries to get done. Rams -8
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
