2026 NFL Picks Week 1: Room for Improvement
Last Season: 121-157-7
This Week:
How disappointing was our performance in 2025-26? Let me count the ways. Bad beats alone can’t explain a performance as miserable as 43% over the course of last season, but maybe like the Cleveland Cavaliers we were analytically winning. I’m almost positive this year will be better, even if we started with a bad beat in Seattle. And if not? Hey, we’re happy to have football back anyway!
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. New England Patriots
This one was pretty straightforward: I felt comfortable taking the adjusted Seahawks lines in last year’s Super Bowl, and those paid off pretty comfortably. A healthy Drake Maye and the addition of A.J. Brown isn’t enough to fix New England’s offensive issues, where a shaky offensive line and Josh McDaniels’ playcalling crumble against Mike MacDonald’s defense. Then Sam Darnold left the game on the first drive and the Seahawks just barely missed covering anyway. Pretty sure I was right about this one, but sometimes you get stuck with Drew Lock instead of a starter-level quarterback. Seahawks -3.5
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 “vs.” San Francisco 49ers (Australia)
I’m a little scared of futures bets on the 49ers because so many of their best players have lengthy injury histories, but none of that matters in Week 1. Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Mike Evans, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey are all healthy, and both teams will be uncomfortable playing on the other side of the globe in Australia. The Rams have a lot of flash, but I’ll be surprised if they come out of the gate firing on all cylinders and really dunk on their rivals here. 49ers +3.5
Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Chicago Bears
What an uncomfortable way for a Bears fan to start the season. If the Bears are going to live up to the excitement of last season’s playoff run and a full offseason of hype, they should trample an opponent like Carolina who has plenty of defensive weaknesses and a quarterback who alternates competent and disastrous play. The Chicago defense might be an absolute mess this year, though, so the pick ultimately depends on how much faith you have in Dennis Allen to work around his personnel limitations. I believe in him enough to cover a field goal on the road, but I won’t blame you if you don’t. Bears -3
Cincinnati Bengals -4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati lost Trey Hendrickson and added Dexter Lawrence in the offseason. The net of that is a positive, especially with a relatively down year for Hendrickson in 2025, but does that actually fix the Bengals’ biggest problems? Their defense finished 30th in DVOA last year, and now they’re facing Baker Mayfield and a Bucs team that has gotten off to some blazing hot starts in recent years. I don’t think the talent gap is large enough to justify this spread in Week 1. Buccaneers +4
Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I spent all offseason laughing at the Colts for extending Daniel Jones and trading for Sauce Gardner in an effort to maximize an imaginary contention window, and now I’m backing them against the Ravens in Week 1. It’s reasonable to think Baltimore improved by replacing John Harbaugh with Jesse Minter, but I still have some big questions about their team. Will the offensive line slip down a tier without Tyler Lindebaum? Is it reasonable to expect receiving contributions from anyone other than 140 million dollar man Zay Flowers? Is the defensive talent considerably better than what Minter left behind with the Chargers? I’m much higher on the Ravens for the full season, but I could see Jonathan Taylor running all over them and the Colts taking this one down to the wire. Colts +3
Detroit Lions -7 vs. New Orleans Saints
That Tyler Shough guy…pretty good! That’s about the best praise I can give the Saints, though. Their defense was surprisingly good last season despite being very old by NFL standards, and maybe Jordyn Tyson will be good, but right now they’re running out Chris Olave, Travis Etienne, and not much else. I don’t think they can keep up with a Lions team looking to open the season with a statement game at home, and I expect this score to snowball. Lions -7
Houston Texans +1 vs. Buffalo Bills
Take a look at those recent games. Can you explain why Buffalo is favored here? I’m not sure Joe Brady is a better head coach than Sean McDermott, I’m not sure his replacement is as good an OC as Brady was, and D.J. Moore alone isn’t enough for Buffalo’s offense to solve Houston’s defense. The Texans have locked the BIlls up twice in the past two years, and I have no reason to expect a different result here. C.J. Stroud should play well enough against a Bills’ defense that’s middling at best to come away with a win in their home opener. Texans +1
Jacksonville Jaguars -9 vs. Cleveland Browns
I’m scared about this one just because I’m not sure how high the line would have to get before I considered taking the Browns. Cleveland’s only competent unit last year was their defense, and they swapped Myles Garrett for Jared Verse and lost their DC. If the Jags are going to live up to any positive expectations this season, they better start by blowing out Deshaun Watson and the Browns. Jaguars -9
Tennessee Titans -1 vs. New York Jets
Wow. I guess I’m taking the Jets? I don’t like to buy into preseason results, but Cam Ward seems to be losing backers by the day and there just isn’t much else on this team to be excited about. If Geno Smith can look anything like the Seattle version of himself instead of what we saw in Las Vegas last year, the Jets should win this game. Jets +1
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I have so little interest in watching the reunion of Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh this year, but it’s hard to look at the rest of the Steelers’ roster and not be a little optimistic. They won’t be fun to watch, but they’re at home playing against a team who just recently found out they’re starting their third string quarterback instead of either of the guys ahead of him on the depth chart. With a healthy defense in Week 1, Pittsburgh should roll at home against Cooper Rush. Steelers -6
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
All offseason long I’ve been hearing and nearly puking because of the hype surrounding Jordan Love and the Packers. So why are they underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1? This line makes me too suspicious to take Green Bay. Maybe Kyler Murray will connect with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison just enough to support Brian Flores’ usual wizardry on the defensive side. Vikings -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 vs. Washington Commanders
There are some valid reasons to expect a bounceback season from Jayden Daniels and company, but losing Laremy Tunsil before the season began was a huge blow. Their defense was bad last year and still has serious flaws, their offensive line struggles against teams far less dangerous than Philadelphia, and the spread here isn’t big enough to scare me. If you really like the Commanders, take the money line. I’ll be taking the Eagles to win by at least a touchdown at home. Eagles -5.5
Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. Miami Dolphins
I refuse to spend too much time thinking about this game. Both teams were terrible last year, both lost highly effective coordinators, and both are in the early stages of a rebuild. If I’m looking at mirror images, I’ll take the points. Dolphins +3
Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I was more excited to back the Cardinals when this line was double digits, but I think the Cardinals’ reputation is far worse than what they actually put on the field. They have some good defensive pieces that were injured last year, they have a slew of good offensive playmakers (Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jeremiyah Love, for starters), and they could absolutely benefit from their new coaching staff. I’m more comfortable expecting a one touchdown game here than a blowout. Cardinals +9.5
New York Giants +3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I won’t blame you for thinking the Giants upgraded going from Brian Daboll to John Harbaugh, but I’m not sure it’s as big of an improvement as it might initially seem. The Cowboys’ offense should be both consistent and explosive this season, and I can’t say the same about Jaxson Dart or the oft-injured weapons at his disposal. Throw in the benefit of the game’s best field goal kicker, and I’m taking Dallas on the road. Cowboys -3
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
You have every right to make fun of me for this one, but when the line fell below a field goal I couldn’t hold off anymore. I really don’t trust Bo Nix, and I’m not picking him on the road in Kansas City until I confirm Mahomes and Andy Reid can’t get their magic back. Chiefs -2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
