2026 NFL Picks Week 4: Course Correct!
We had a tough afternoon slate last week, but we hit another Thursday Night Football line and we now have a decent set of statistics to rely on for some of these picks. There are a lot of low lines and home underdogs this week, and we’re interested in most of them. Let’s get to the good stuff!
Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I was struggling all week to think of a less likable quarterback battle, and ultimately I came up empty. There have been plenty of matchups of bad quarterbacks, but none I recall that can compete with a washed up troll on one side and an accused serial sex offender on the other. It has also been multiple years since either has strung together a real run of compelling play, and with that in mind it feels right to take the Browns and the points at home. One week of scoring against the Bengals isn't enough for me to forget Pittsburgh's 3-point showing against the Patriots, and if it's going to be a standard AFC North slugfest, home underdog is the way to go. Browns +3.5
Washington Commanders +4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I don't want to overreact to one effective game from Marcus Mariota, but maybe Washington Offensive Coordinator David Blough really is the next big thing in the NFL. More importantly, I can't find a reason to trust the Colts this much. Jonathan Taylor is still looking good, and their offense should move the ball even without Alec Pierce, but it doesn't seem like the Commanders are rolling over without Jayden Daniels. These teams are pretty similar by DVOA through three weeks, and that suggests the line is too high. Commanders +4
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
If your team is trading for J.J. McCarthy, your quarterback situation is truly dire. I'm willing to give the Cardinals a little slack for getting boatraced by the 49ers last week because San Francisco has been doing that to everyone. If they can replicate that offensive performance against a below-average Giants' defense, they'll score plenty of points and easily outpace Jameis Winston. I'm a little nervous about the Cards traveling East for a morning game, but not enough to pass on a standard home line with how bad the Giants' offense has looked. Cardinals -2.5
Houston Texans -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I'm probably changing my mind on the Texans at the wrong time, especially with Nico Collins expected back, but at some point I need to acknowledge their play so far. Their defense just hasn't been as good as we thought it would be, and that should give Dallas the opportunities they need to keep this game close. Unless Houston really starts racking up points with Nico back, the full field goal is too enticing to pass up. There's a lot of potential for a backdoor cover or even an upset with this one. Cowboys +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
I'm still not really comfortable with this pick because I have no idea what to expect from undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels filling in for Baker Mayfield. Baker looked bad in three games this season, but Daniels has only been in the NFL for a few weeks. Is that enough to execute against Green Bay's pathetic defense? On the other side, is Todd Bowles's bad Brian Flores impression enough to force mistakes from Jordan Love and a shoddy offensive line? I would absolutely pass on this game if I was placing real bets, but since we pick them all here...I'll take the bad team and the points at home against a fellow bad team. Buccaneers +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It's starting to seem like the Bengals' improved defense might have been as much a product of poor competition as adding Dexter Lawrence. He's a force against the run and a truly elite player, but giving up 30 points to the Steelers is a tough look. Jacksonville's offense should have a big day, which just leaves Joe Burrow against the Jags' defense. They should be able to keep pace if they can avoid mistakes, but they've had real issues with that through three games. This one looks like a toss-up, and with that in mind we'll take the points. Jaguars +2.5
Buffalo Bills -7 vs. New England Patriots
Something is still very, very wrong with the offense in New England, and while they're facing a below-average opponent in Buffalo, Josh Allen could still force them to play catch-up. Buffalo seemed asleep at the wheel for most of their game against the Chargers last week, and it makes me worried about taking them as a big favorite again. If we had one more decent offensive performance from the Patriots I'd take the points; without that, I'll take the team averaging 33.6 points per game to cover a touchdown at home against a road team averaging just 12. Bills -7
Chicago Bears -3 vs. New York Jets
Another week, another start for Case Keenum. Can the Bears win a second straight home game with an aging third-string quarterback? I'd worry more if the game were indoors or Breece Hall was expected to play, but as is I think Ben Johnson is going to get the better of his former coaching partner in Aaron Glenn. Bears -3
Baltimore Ravens -11.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has scored 37 points in three games, which, to be fair, is one more than the defending AFC Champion Patriots. Still, I think you need to reach 20 to cover this line, and while the jury is still out on Jesse Minter overall, I expect him to be able to scheme up a lot of issues for Cam Ward. It's a big line, but Baltimore's offense is good enough to cover it with Zay Flowers back on the field. Ravens -11.5
Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Obviously the version of the Rams we expected to see coming into the season would be able to cover this line. We just haven't seen them play to that level consistently. Even in the first half against Denver, the Rams missed opportunities to head into halftime up by more than 16 points. I'm not excited to back the Eagles after their loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football, but I think that game could have gone differently with just a couple of key plays, and Sean McVay hasn't had as much success against the Eagles as Ben Johnson. I'm not ready to take the Rams as road favorites just yet. Eagles +3.5
Minnesota Vikings -10.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
This line seems absurd with Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz both capable of making truly dumbfounding decisions. And yet...I'm not sure the Dolphins could capitalize on those even with De'Von Achane, and the other side should be far uglier with Brian Flores pressuring Malik Willis. I'm going to stick to my guns and go against the Dolphins until they're getting two touchdowns. Vikings -10.5
San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Denver Broncos
Denver has been mediocre overall this year, and they've only looked good in the second halves of their two home games. Now they have to travel to San Francisco to face an offense that has been firing on all cylinders all season long. We could be in for a good game, but I think it's more likely the 49ers offense succeeds where the Rams failed and maintains the kind of lead that precludes Bo Nix from dinking and dunking his way back into the game. 49ers -3
Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders are 3-0, but I think the exciting start to their season ends here. The Chiefs should have plenty of fans in Las Vegas for this one, and they've looked good enough on offense to expect them to run and throw the ball successfully in this matchup. As long as their defense can limit Brock Bowers, they should put enough pressure on Kirk Cousins to make him uncomfortable. Chiefs -4.5
Seattle Seahawks -7.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Do not pick the Chargers until they look good on at least one side of the ball for a whole game. I'm scared of what the Seattle defense is going to do to the dysfunctional Chargers' offense, and other than a couple of early mistakes Sam Darnold looked like he wasn't too rusty from his injury absence. With this one in Seattle, I'd probably take the Seahawks at anything under 10. Seahawks -7.5
Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions
You could set the over/under for this game at a pretty ridiculous point and I'd still be tempted to take the over, especially if Jalen Coker is able to play for the Panthers. He seems to be somewhat of a force multiplier for the Carolina offense, and if they look like they have through three weeks, they'll have plenty of opportunities to score on Detroit's non-existent secondary. I think this game will be a back-and-forth affair, and I like Carolina to finish within a field goal at home. Panthers +3.5
New Orleans Saints -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
One game against the Packers isn't enough to get me excited about Michael Penix Jr., but it's impossible to say the Falcons don't seem a lot more exciting than they did with Cooper Rush under center. With New Orleans struggling on defense, Bijan Robinson and Drake London should be able to produce a pretty efficient offense again. Atlanta is the slightly better team by DVOA, and I like backing them with the points on long rest. Falcons +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
