2026 NFL Picks Week 3: Escaping Mundanity
Another week, another .500 finish. It’s always tempting to start forecasting after just two weeks, but the truth is we still barely know what to expect from most of these teams. Are the Chargers really one of the worst teams in the league? Will the Eagles lose OR beat any teams by more than four points? Can anyone stop the NFL from subjecting us to hideous jersey combinations for no discernible reason? Let’s see what we learn this week!
Green Bay Packers -5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I was leaning Packers in this game until it became clear that Michael Penix was playing. He’s not even an above-average starting quarterback, but he’s so much better than Cooper Rush that the 1.5-point adjustment for the change was a real insult. I certainly didn’t expect what we actually saw on Thursday night, but I happily took the Falcons +5 and expected Bijan and Drake London to make enough big plays against a soft defense to cover. Falcons +5
Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Carolina Panthers
I’m not ready to buy into the Panthers, yet. They’ve looked good on offense against two suspect defenses in Chicago and Atlanta, and you aren’t eligible for a defensive rating when you play against Cooper Rush. I’m even less ready to go in on Deshaun Watson, though, even if he managed to throw some successful passes last week for the first time in years. The Panthers should be able to do enough to come away with a road win here, and I’m willing to lay the three points to back them. Panthers -3
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Who could have guessed that the reunion of 62-year old Mike McCarthy and 42-year old Aaron Rodgers would look so ugly? Oh right, pretty much everyone who saw them go 4-7-1 together eight years ago. Their offense is putrid, and even if I still have plenty of questions about the Bengals’ defense, this version of the Steelers doesn’t have the answers. Bengals -3.5
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 vs. Houston Texans
Here we are again, and I’m sticking with the Texans. They’ve disappointed me in back-to-back weeks, but the Colts’ defense can’t stop anyone and Houston’s defense should be looking to take some names. The Texans have done well against the Colts in the DeMeco Ryans era, and they can win by a field goal in Indy. Texans -2.5
Miami Dolphins +11.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Remember what we said last week? The Dolphins should be treated as a semi-professional team until they provide evidence to the contrary. Chiefs -11.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. New England Patriots
New England lost more important players last week after losing A.J. Brown in Week 1, and Drake Maye still doesn’t look right. The Jaguars were in control against the Broncos last week before a tough second half, but they’re the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup and they’re at home, in Florida, in September. Jaguars -3
Detroit Lions -6.5 vs. New York Jets
On the one hand, a surprisingly frisky Jets team playing indoors against a defense prone to giving up huge plays. On the other, a steamrolling offense looking to get back on track with extra rest and a history of dunking on former coordinators. Just last season, the Lions blew the Bears out in Ben Johnson’s return to Detroit, and I think that Bears team was better than this Jets squad. There’s a lot of potential for a backdoor cover, but Geno Smith is no Tyler Shough. Lions -6.5
New York Giants -3 vs. Tennessee Titans
I can get a full field goal against the Jameis Winston version of the Giants? Backing a team that isn’t the Dolphins? Sign me up! Titans +3
Buffalo Bills -7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This looks like a trap based just on how both teams have looked through two weeks, and it sounds like the Bills are planning to wear some hideous alternate uniforms. It isn’t enough, because the Chargers have looked uglier than the Steelers’ bumblebee jerseys on offense and defense to this point. I don’t want to pick against Josh Allen passing on this defense at home. Bills -7
Washington Commanders +7 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Of course I’m terrified to back Drew Lock as a touchdown favorite on the road, but I get to watch this Seahawks’ defense play against Marcus Mariota? Why would the Commanders look better on offense or defense than the Cardinals did in Arizona last week? Seahawks -7
San Francisco 49ers -9 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The history between these division rivals is difficult to parse because the 49ers have endured so many injuries over the past few years. In games with both Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, though, San Francisco has regularly won by double digits. I just can’t see Jacoby Brissett keeping up in a shootout. 49ers -9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I can’t believe I’m backing Baker again, but the Vikings don’t deserve to be road favorites yet. Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Carson Wentz, they’ll need to find a different level of offense to continue winning, and as dumb as it sounds, the Bucs clearly need this game way more. I like them to win in the Florida heat as underdogs. Buccaneers +2
New Orleans Saints -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Look at the Saints favored by more than a field goal! And against a 2-0 opponent, at that. I’ve enjoyed watching Kirk Cousins this season, but New Orleans has a better defense than the Dolphins or the Chargers and that’s only on one side of the ball. If Malik Willis could move the ball on the Raiders, Tyler Shough shouldn’t have too much trouble, and the Saints feel due for a big win at home. Saints -3.5
Dallas Cowboys +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
This game is being played in Brazil rather than Dallas, which means the Cowboys’ offense won’t see their usual home-field bump. On top of that, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry might be able to combine for 300 rushing yards against this defense. Remember what the Giants looked like against the Cowboys in Week 1? Or Jayden Daniels before his injury last week? Now think about this Baltimore team taking the same approach and just keeping the ball away for 8-minute touchdown drives. Yeah, I’m taking the Ravens. They shouldn’t even need their injured receivers for this one. Ravens -3
Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
You won’t find many people who believe less in Bo Nix and this version of the Broncos than me, but this looks like a line based on preseason Rams hype and Denver’s performance in Week 1. The Rams won’t have Myles Garrett or Puka Nacua available, and while Stafford will still pull some rabbits out of hats, I don’t like the idea of banking on them to go wild against the Broncos’ defense. Denver is healthier and at home for a second straight week, and I’m taking them as underdogs. Broncos +2.5
Chicago Bears +4.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Do not bank on Tyson Bagent (or Case Keenum, for that matter) against a Vic Fangio defense. Yes, it’s a lot of points, and yes, the Eagles might go 12-5 with a 0 point differential, but it’s just not worth the pain. Eagles -4.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
