2025 NFL Picks Week 12: Ay! Caramba
I don’t know if there’s more I can say at this point. I’m yet to have a winning week this season, and if you purely picked against what I’ve put forward here, you’d be crushing the sportsbooks and any competition. It’s extremely discouraging, but I can’t stop making picks now. Let’s see what we can do in Week 12.
Houston Texans +6 vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo looked great last week pulling away from the Buccaneers, but Houston’s defense is a considerable jump in talent from what Tampa Bay has to offer. Josh Allen and the Bills are familiar with the problems they pose; last year the Texans beat the Bills 23-20 in Houston and held Joshy to 9/30 passing for 131 yards. Of course it doesn’t feel good banking on Davis Mills, but Houston’s defense is too good for me to pass on this line at home. Texans +6
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Every piece of me wants to pick the Colts in this game. They’re 8-2, both of their losses were one-score games against teams with multiple pass rush threats, and they’re coming off a bye. Kansas City hasn’t shown us anything recently to suggest they should be favored by more than the standard home line here. And yet…I can’t bring myself to believe Steve Spagnuolo is going to let Jonathan Taylor dictate this game the way he has many of the Colts’ wins, and it’s so hard to see Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid slipping to 5-6. It makes me queasier than I expected this late in the season, but I’m taking the Chiefs at home. Chiefs -3.5
Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
It’s hard for me to express how little I believe in J.J. McCarthy as a professional quarterback, but they’re forcing my hand here. Green Bay had to convert a two-point conversion to get me a push last week, and they’ve been nothing but disappointing when I’ve picked them. That said, they usually score points against Brian Flores’ defense (25+ points in their last three meetings), and J.J. needs a very positive game script to break a 50% completion percentage and 20 points for his team. I just can’t bring myself to count on him, even against Jordan Love. Packers -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 vs. New England Patriots
I can’t believe I’m doing this after what Joe Flacco and the Bengals did to me last week, but despite New England’s 9-2 record, I don’t like picking them to cover a spread this large on the road. They’ve only beaten the Titans by this margin away from home, and the Bengals still present quite a bit more of an offensive threat than Tennessee does. I’ll regret this when Drake Maye throws for 500 yards on the joke that is Cincinnati’s defense, but I’m hoping for at least a backdoor cover with help from Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins against the Patriots’ 29th-ranked defense. Bengals +7.5
Detroit Lions -10.5 vs. New York Giants
The Lions’ offense has struggled in three games this year, all outside and on the road, against the Packers, Chiefs, and Eagles. Those teams rank 16th, 11th, and 17th against the run this year. This game is indoors in Detroit, and against the Giants’ 32nd-ranked run defense. Detroit’s defense has actually been playing quite well, and I don’t think Jaxson Dart will be able to break it down easily. It’s a big line, but the Lions usually play well coming off a loss. Lions -10.5
Baltimore Ravens -13.5 vs. New York Jets
I know Baltimore has been uneven, but I think they’re on the upswing from a health standpoint and I certainly think they’re ready to face the limited threats Justin Fields poses. If they’re at home and hold the Jets to 13 points, do we really think they’ll come up short of 27 against the league’s 30th-ranked defense? These are the types of games Baltimore usually wins big. Ravens -13.5
Chicago Bears -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Everything is telling me to take the Steelers here, and while I’m very skeptical of the Bears’ 7-3 record, they’ve undoubtedly been good at one thing: winning the turnover battle. Pittsburgh has looked good in games where they’ve won turnovers decisively, like against the Patriots and Colts, and they’ve looked much worse in their other road games. I think Mason Rudolph is likely to be the starter here, and if Caleb Williams just protects the ball, Chicago can win by a field goal at home. Bears -2.5
Tennessee Titans +13.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold was terrible in Seattle’s loss to the Rams last week. This Titans team is nothing like those Rams, and the Seahawks’ defense is going to make life miserable for Cam Ward and company. Seattle already has four wins by 14+ points this season, and Tennessee might be the worst team in the league. They’ll get a fifth one here. Seahawks -13.5
Las Vegas Raiders -4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Okay, let’s get this out of the way. Cleveland has been atrocious on the road. Despite boasting the league’s 5th-ranked defense by DVOA, they’re 0-5 on the road with an average point deficit of 12+ points per game. But at least they’re really good at something! Las Vegas hasn’t found true success in any phase of the game, and I can’t take a team like that giving more than a field goal. Browns +4
Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Both teams had slightly misleading results last week. The Cardinals lost big despite racking up an impressive number of yards against the 49ers, and Jacksonville won big despite some pretty middling statistics. The Jaguars don’t have the luxury of playing at home against a team down both of their starting tackles this time around, and while the Cardinals have been disappointing, Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy scare me a lot more than Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence, especially coming off a win. Let’s take the home team and the points. Cardinals +3
New Orleans Saints -1.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been one of the many banes of my picks existence all season, and now they’re starting Kirk Cousins and missing Drake London. Is that enough to make them as bad as the 30th-ranked Saints with Tyler Shough? They still have a better defense, a better quarterback, a better running back, and slightly better special teams. It makes me nauseous, but not as much as taking the Saints as favorites would. Falcons +1.5
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Was Dallas somehow more impressive in their win over the Raiders on Monday Night than the Eagles beating the Lions? Philadelphia’s defense seems to be rounding into form like they did last year, and they’ve already beaten Dallas once this season. I don’t have enough faith in the Cowboys, who are 0-5-1 against teams with winning records this season, to cover with so little help from the line. Eagles -3.5
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know the Buccaneers have been struggling, but the Rams often finish close in games against teams with decent defenses. Despite Sam Darnold’s four interceptions last week, the Rams only won by two points, and they still don’t have much of a home field advantage. I wouldn’t take Baker to win this game outright, but if the Bucs can recover from a stomach bug and get Bucky Irving and/or Chris Godwin back, they can definitely cover here. Buccaneers +6.5
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
For all the talk about Mac Jones, the 49ers offense is a different level of scary with Brock Purdy back. They’re at home against a Carolina team who recently lost to the Saints, and I trust Robert Saleh to make Bryce Young beat them. I don’t trust Bryce Young enough to actually do that, or even to keep things close on Monday Night Football. 49ers -6.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
