2025 NFL Picks Week 11: Who Knows? But Happy Friendsgiving!
The Costanza couldn’t save us. Russell Wilson couldn’t save us, because my Bears only managed to win by 4 on a 4.5 line. Aaron Rodgers spited me once again by playing his worst game of the year against a Chargers team with no offensive line. There might be an answer out there, but I sure can’t find it. This awesome Ringer article is my best explanation for our terrible results.
But we aren’t quitters here at Questionably Qualified. So we’re back for another week of abuse, and we’re going to turn it around here much like the Washington Generals.
New England Patriots -13.5 vs. New York Jets
What a great way to start the week, losing by a half point and missing a field goal off the upright. Kind of fits this year’s theme. Patriots -13.5
Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. Washington Commanders
I think this line is an overreaction both ways. Sure, the Commanders have been blown out the last three weeks, but that’s against three of the best teams in the league in the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions. Miami is nowhere near that caliber of team, and their win over Buffalo might just be another example of divisional chaos. I think Washington might be a better team than Miami even with Marcus Mariota filling in for Jayden Daniels, so I’m happy to get points. Commanders +2.5
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I finally sided with Carolina just in time for them to lay a huge egg against the Saints last week. I don’t want to ride the see-saw here, but Atlanta’s offense won’t get shut out against the Panthers a second time this season, right? Right?! Falcons -3.5
Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Chicago Bears
Look, I’m as skeptical as anyone about J.J. McCarthy’s prospects as a professional quarterback. That said, the Bears’ defense doesn’t present much of a challenge, and they had to pull off a minor miracle to score 24 points on the Giants last week. I like Minnesota at home, and I’m scared of what their wide receivers will do to my team. Vikings -3
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Joe Flacco Bengals might just be a really bad matchup for this Steelers’ defense, because Joe is happy to throw it up to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and Pittsburgh doesn’t really have anyone to cover them. Everyone can move the ball on Cincinnati’s defense, but I don’t see why we won’t have another 30-something to 30-something game here in a rematch of Week 7. Bengals +5.5
New York Giants +7 vs. Green Bay Packers
Any time I take the Packers, it’s grudgingly. But coming off two consecutive losses and facing Jameis Winston? If Green Bay doesn’t win by a touchdown here, I’m going to request an end to Jordan Love MVP talk forever. Packers -7
Tennessee Titans +7 vs. Houston Texans
Other than Week 5, when the Titans pulled off one of the more bizarre comebacks I’ve ever seen and knocked me out of our survivor league, the Titans have finished within seven points of their opponent zero times this season. Houston beat them 26-0 in Week 4. The Texans’ defense is just too good for Cam Ward to move the ball, and Davis Mills is good enough to put up points on a mediocre Titans’ defense. Texans -7
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ defense looked better than I expected on Sunday night, but now they have to fly across the country to take on a…competitive Jaguars team. The absence of both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater is going to bite the Chargers in the back half of this season, and I’m counting on Trevor Lawrence to make more things happen than Aaron Rodgers managed last week. Jaguars +3
Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why is this line so high after Buffalo was taken down by the Dolphins? Do we collectively not believe in Baker and the Bucs anymore? I think Tampa will be able to exploit the weaknesses in Buffalo’s defense, and unless Josh Allen can go superhero all game I think it will be a field goal finish. Buccaneers +5.5
Los Angeles Rams -3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I really wanted to take Stafford and the Rams here, but Seattle’s defense is too good for this line to be a full field goal. Sam Darnold will run into issues once we get to the postseason, but I think he’ll play well enough to keep Seattle competitive this week. I’d probably take the Rams at 2.5, but with the full three I’m going Seahawks. Seahawks +3
Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy is back for the 49ers, but he can only help on one side of the ball. The 49ers defense is still missing so many of their key players, and Arizona has looked good against teams with bad defenses since Jacoby Brissett came in for Kyler Murray. I’m not sure they’ll get the win, but I can’t pass up a full field goal at home. Cardinals +3
Denver Broncos +4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Josh Simmons is back for the Chiefs coming off a bye, and Bo Nix kind of sucks. I think we’re set for a Kansas City warpath in the second half of this season, and it will start with a big win over a divisional rival here. Chiefs -4
Cleveland Browns +8 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I was so close to taking Cleveland here because they’ve been so much better at home and it’s just a big spread for a divisional rivalry. But Dillon Gabriel pretty clearly doesn’t have it, and the Baltimore defense has been getting better each week. The Ravens won big when these teams met earlier this season, and I think they’ll do it again here. Ravens -8
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Philadelphia can absolutely exploit Detroit’s biggest weakness, which is a combination of a decent interior offensive line and Jared Goff’s lack of mobility. That being said, how confident are we in the Eagles’ offense after last week’s dud against the Packers? Dan Campbell taking over playcalling duties seemed to diversify the Detroit offense, and their defense is good enough to at least keep Philly in check. Let’s take the points and enjoy the game. Lions +2.5
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
It doesn’t feel good, but I can’t pass up this line when the Raiders have played well at home and Dak Prescott seems to have lost a bit of the shine he had early in the season. The Cowboys absolutely can win this game by a touchdown, but their defense is so bad that I don’t want to bank on them on the road. Let’s see if Geno can perform a little better against Dallas than he did against Denver. Raiders +3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
