2025 NFL Picks Week 13: Don't Call it a Comeback
Seriously, don’t call it that. We’re still 45 games under .500, which would seem impossible if not for the intense pain I’ve felt watching these games every week. It’s still a season I can’t wait to forget, but at least we finished in the green for one whole week. Let’s turn it into a trend!
Detroit Lions -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
It’s impossible to remove all of my bias when evaluating this line. Of course I want the Lions to beat the Packers, and of course it’s easy for me to see the path to it. Green Bay recently lost to the Eagles and Panthers, after all, and have only scored 30 points twice this season. Detroit is by no means a lock to score 30, but they’ve done it six times already this year and now they’re at home on Thanksgiving. If Micah Parsons can get after Jared Goff all game the Lions will be in trouble, but I think the challenge he presents is easier for Detroit to solve than what, say, the Eagles brought to the game two weeks ago, outdoors. I wish it was an easier pick, but I’m taking Detroit until the Packers prove to me they belong on top. Lions -2.5
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I usually don’t pay close attention to home and away splits because so few teams have a real home field advantage these days. Every bit of me wanted to jump on the Chiefs here because they’re certainly the better team and it’s always tempting to take Mahomes against a bad defense. I don’t know if I can ignore the home field element here, though; the Chiefs are 1-3 on the road with their lone win coming against the Russell Wilson Giants, and the Cowboys are 3-1-1 at home with a win over the Eagles and a tie against the Packers. Of course they could get blown out here, but with the way both teams have played lately I’m not willing to give more than a field goal with the Chiefs. Cowboys +3.5
Baltimore Ravens -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Okay so…Joe Burrow is back, Ja’Marr Chase is back, and since the start of the 2021-22 season the Bengals have lost to the Ravens by more than seven points one time in nine games. Most of those Ravens teams were considerably better than what they've been this season. I think Baltimore is due for a bit of regression after four big wins over four bad teams, and that makes this line too big. Bengals +7
Philadelphia Eagles -7 vs. Chicago Bears
Somehow the Bears are on their second four-game winning streak of the season. After wins over the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, and Saints, Chicago got trounced in Baltimore. Now we’ve beaten the Bengals, Giants, Vikings, and Steelers, and we’re heading to Philadelphia. Is there a world where the Eagles jump out to a double-digit lead and watch it crumble or at least get covered by a Bears’ offense that is, at worst, pretty good? Of course there is! That’s what the Eagles have done all season. But I’m not ready to count on Chicago to show out against a team with a distinct talent advantage like the Eagles have. A reminder of our real place in the pecking order seems more likely. Eagles -7
Cleveland Browns +5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Every time you look at a Cleveland Browns game, you have to wonder just how many points their offense will give you in support. Shedeur Sanders played against the Raiders last week, and he was decidedly fine for a mid-round rookie quarterback. They’re not very good at running or passing the football, and usually you need one of those things to be competitive. San Francisco is still missing a lot of defensive talent, though, and Jim Schwartz’s defense was able to hold Brock Purdy in check two years ago. I’d rather pass entirely, but since we pick them all, we’ll take the awesome defense at home. Browns +5
Tennessee Titans +6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I will not take the Jaguars favored by this much on the road. Believe me, I want to! The Titans have lost by 7+ points eight times already this year, so their reputation is hardly undeserved. That said, they’ve lost two close games against two of the league’s best defenses in Houston and Seattle since their Week 10 bye, and Jacksonville hasn’t won a road game by seven all season. Cam Ward has shown some nice flashes lately, and this might be his first really good game start-to-finish. Titans +6.5
Miami Dolphins -6 vs. New Orleans Saints
How bad do we think the Dolphins are? The 24th-ranked team by DVOA being favored by six seems outlandish, but New Orleans is decidedly worse at 30th and have largely been trending downward. Of course Miami could blow this game, but they’re a tougher opponent for Tyler Shough than the Panthers were and they’re coming off a bye. Let’s get crazy. Dolphins -6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Did you know that the 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exactly two wins by more than three points this season? They’ve been a fun team to watch all year, but with the injuries they’ve been managing they haven’t really been able to put a beating on anyone. I’m not sure what to do with Arizona at this point, after they whooped the Cowboys in Dallas and then let Brock Purdy go up and down the field on them in Arizona. If it was lower than the full field goal I’d probably bank on Teddy Bridgewater, but I can see this one finishing within three points either way. Cardinals +3
New York Jets +2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
It looks like the Jets will be facing Kirk Cousins and no Drake London this week, and that has been a bad combination for the Falcons this year. Atlanta has been a better team by a moderate margin this season, but those personnel issues bring these teams pretty even. I certainly don’t want to count on the Jets week-to-week, but this is a winnable game and I’m willing to take them with the points at home. Jets +2.5
Carolina Panthers +10.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
This game can go one of two ways. In the first, Carolina goes home after two straight road games and puts up a solid fight against the league’s best team by DVOA. They’ve played some decent defense at home, and when they’ve been able to run the ball they’ve scored points against even competent defenses. The second way it goes is a reminder from the Rams to the rest of the league that they really are the top team, and top teams don’t mess around with inferior opponents. One of Carolina’s big home losses this year was to the Bills, who went into Carolina and won 40-9. I think the Rams are an even better team than Buffalo, and their defense is going to make life miserable for Bryce Young. This line should probably be 14. Rams -10.5
Indianapolis Colts -4.5 vs. Houston Texans
This one is just a matter of how much time Daniel Jones has until midnight. The pumpkin-ing has begun, and now he’s facing one of the league’s best defenses. I don’t think the Texans will let Jonathan Taylor run wild on them, which means we could be in for another slugfest like the Colts had against the Chiefs last week. The Colts should still win, but I don’t like their defense enough to bank on them with a spread this large. Texans +4.5
Seattle Seahawks -10.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
So it’s either J.J. McCarthy or…Max Brosmer? And whichever rookie quarterback the Vikings are going with, they’re traveling to the most hostile environment in the league to take on the league’s 3rd-ranked defense by DVOA. Brian Flores might flummox Sam Darnold all game, but Darnold revenge and a Seattle blowout feels more likely. Seahawks -10.5
Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The spread feels too big for me, but the Raiders have lost six games by 10+ points already this season. I’m a little nervous taking the Chargers with so many offensive line injuries, but I’m hoping they’ve come up with a good game plan to address that over the bye week. You can’t make me take Geno Smith and the Raiders! Chargers -9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
It seems like we’re going to get Mason Rudolph again for the Steelers this week, and Buffalo has a rest advantage coming into the game. I picked the Steelers to go under .500 heading into this season, and now it’s time for me to double down. Josh Allen needs to go bonkers to right Buffalo’s ship, and I bet he can’t wait to break out after dealing with the Texans’ defense last week. Bills -3.5
Washington Commanders +6.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Denver’s defense is supposed to be really good, and Marcus Mariota is likely to start for the Commanders again this weekend. Bo Nix is not a legitimate NFL quarterback, as evidenced by his 2-2 record and +3 point differential on the road this season. I just think we’re in a real nightmare scenario for Washington with the way their injuries have compounded, and Denver is closer in quality to the Chiefs, Lions, Seahawks, and Cowboys (all of whom blew out the Commanders) than the Bears or Dolphins (who had close wins). Broncos -6.5
New England Patriots -7 vs. New York Giants
The Patriots should win this game, but with Will Campbell and Jared Wilson both out, the line is too big for a team with backups on the left side of their offensive line. The Giants are at least entertaining with Jameis Wintson under center, and if he doesn’t throw two pick-sixes they can keep this one within one score. Giants +7
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
