2025 NFL Picks Week 15: Milling Around in Mediocrity
.500 weeks are a lot easier to stomach when the season is going well; at this point it feels like a massive disappointment. Just one week of 10+ wins would be a big morale boost, and we’re off to a good start! Can we keep it up through some entertaining division rivalries this week? Let’s find out!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I know the Bucs seem like the better team, and they're at home, but they haven't been good enough lately to justify a line this high. Even with Drake London out, Kirk Cousins should get enough help from Bijan to keep things competitive. Tampa Bay’s offense can't be fully trusted with the way Baker Mayfield has played lately, so we'll take the points. Falcons +5.5
Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Taking the Bengals as only slight underdogs makes me nervous, but nothing about the Ravens scares me right now. They probably should have gotten a win over the Steelers last week with Likely’s non-catch, but how much is that really worth? I'm willing to keep banking on Burrow until he comes up short. Bengals +2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -13.5 vs. New York Jets
I know, it's absurd. Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are favored by almost two touchdowns in an NFL game. What's even crazier? We're backing them! The Jets haven't been able to find a flow on offense all year, and trying out their third starting quarterback of the season doesn't make me feel any better about them. The Jags will disappoint us, but I don't think it's this week. Jaguars -13.5
Philadelphia Eagles -11.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The game Jalen Hurts played against the Chargers was truly atrocious. The Eagles’ defense did everything they could, but their offensive ineptitude was enough for them to lose outright. Now they're favored by double digits and I can't bring myself to pick against them! The Raiders have been an absolute joke on the road this year (1-5, -95 point differential), and they'll be traveling to the eastern time zone for an early game in what is probably rough weather. I'm not happy about it, but I can't take Kenny Pickett here. Eagles -11.5
Houston Texans -10 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Texans are playing their best ball of the season and the Cardinals have been on the wrong end of three blowouts in the last six weeks, but something about this game scares me a bit. Houston was lucky to get past ten points last week, and they've only gotten past twenty five times this season. With an offense so eminently stoppable, this line feels a little too high at the full ten. Cardinals +10
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I can think of a lot of reasons the Chiefs should win this game and win it handily, but they just haven't been that team this year. The Texans came through for us as smaller underdogs than this, and even with Justin Herbert’s hand injury I think the Chargers can too. I like Kansas City to win, but not by this much. Chargers +5.5
Chicago Bears -7.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I really don't know what to make of Shedeur Sanders. His ceiling as an NFL quarterback remains pretty low, but he played well against the Titans last week and the Bears’ defense isn't wildly better (26th to 28th in DVOA) than Tennessee’s. It would be legitimately embarrassing if Chicago lost this game with the potential they’ve flashed this year, but I'm still not ready to take them as big favorites against a good Cleveland defense. Browns +7.5
New York Giants -2.5 vs. Washington Commanders
It has been a brutal season for Washington, but I think they're still a better team than the Giants with no Malik Nabers and no Cam Skattebo. Their big loss to Minnesota last week was a classic example of falling into an early hole and not being able to climb back out. They should be able to avoid that here and get some big plays from Chris Rodriguez and Terry McLaurin to come away with a win over a similarly compromised Giants squad. Commanders +2.5
New England Patriots -1 vs. Buffalo Bills
I've seen a lot of different variations on this line, but I kind of like New England even if they're slight favorites. They've already beaten Buffalo once this year, they're playing at home, and they're coming off a bye. Josh Allen is absolutely capable of putting the Bills on his back and beating anyone, but it's not something I want to count on week after week. Let's see if Drake Maybe can wrap up the AFC East in his second season in the league. Patriots -1
Seattle Seahawks -14 vs. Indianapolis Colts
If you resort to bringing Philip Rivers out of retirement five years since he last played a game, I will be picking against you. Throw in one of the two best defenses and maybe the best home field advantage in the league, and I need the line in the twenties to even consider it. Seahawks -14
New Orleans Saints +2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
If you know what to do with the Panthers this year you're much smarter than I am. I thought they'd beat up on Tyler Shough and the Saints at home a few weeks back, and they lost 17-7. Now I'm supposed to count on them to do better in New Orleans? I think not. Saints +2.5
San Francisco 49ers -13 vs. Tennessee Titans
I don't really know how they're doing it, but the 49ers have managed to rout most of the bad teams they've played this year (five double digit wins) despite their injuries. Tennessee played pretty well against the Browns last week, and their only really disappointing performance in recent weeks was their loss in Jacksonville. I don’t trust the 49ers defense enough to cover this big of a line. Titans +13
Los Angeles Rams -6 vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions’ offense is so good that it's hard to see them getting blown out, but with all of their injuries and the way the Rams have been playing, they'll need to score 30 to cover this spread. It's certainly something they CAN do, but not if Jared Verse and the Rams defense are able to generate some interior pressure on Jared Goff. It makes me squeamish, but we pick every game here, and the Rams look like the most serious team in the league. Rams -6
Denver Broncos +2 vs. Green Bay Packers
Everyone knows I hate picking Jordan Love and the Packers, but sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Bo Nix is even more overrated than Love, and for all of the hype, I think Denver’s defense is more in the “good” camp than “great”. They should be able to pick up a big win on the road, and if I'm wrong, I'll be happy! Packers -2
Dallas Cowboys -6 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I think this is a particularly bad matchup for the Vikings. Dak Prescott is great against the blitz, which should neutralize Minnesota’s defensive strength, especially if George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb are both healthy. The Dallas defense still has issues, but they're talented enough to make life difficult for J.J. McCarthy. As long as they don't let the Vikings get out to a lead like the Commanders did, they should be okay. It's a big number, but remember: J.J. McCarthy is not a good quarterback. Cowboys -6
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa cannot play good football in bad weather, and it's supposed to be in the teens or twenties in Pittsburgh for this one. I've been wrong about the Dolphins a lot this year, but I'm picking against them again. Steelers -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
