2025 NFL Picks Week 16: Go Time
Hey, a winning week! We’re still desperate for our first 10-win showing and we only have three weeks left. As we get into the picks below we’re counting on two big things: some people are too old to play good football, and the best teams stop messing around and start winning big this time of year. Let’s get to the picks!
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I’m simultaneously confused as to how this pick was in jeopardy and incredibly relieved it came through as a win. The Rams seemed to be in complete control until they gave up a punt return touchdown to Rashid Shaheed, and they had multiple chances to slam the door shut even after that. They blew a big win, but losing by one was still enough for us. Rams +1.5
Washington Commanders +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Yuck, not exactly an interesting appetizer for Saturday night’s main course of Bears-Packers for NFC North supremacy. The Eagles seemed to find some vestige of their 2024 selves in a 31-0 win over the Raiders last week, but it’s hard to tell which team that says more about. The Commanders aren’t nearly as scary without Jayden Daniels, but Marcus Mariota has been okay filling in for him and Philadelphia hasn’t won by a touchdown on the road all season. Let’s hold our nose and hope for a run-of-the-mill 2025 Eagles performance: dominant for stretches and mysteriously close at the end. Commanders +7
Chicago Bears +1 vs. Green Bay Packers
The time has come. The time every Bears fan has deeply feared for more than ten years. The last time Chicago beat Green Bay when both teams had winning records was November of 2013, when Josh McCown was filling in for an injured Jay Cutler and went on the best seven-game run any Bears’ quarterback has had this century. Now we’re facing off in December with a chance to nearly lock up the NFC North title. A punch in the gut is more likely, but come on. Micah Parsons is out. Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson are both banged up. Jordan Love is not Aaron Rodgers. It has to be now for Caleb Williams. Bears +1
Cleveland Browns +10.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
I’ve spent enough time bemoaning the premature coronation of Josh Allen this season. Yes, he was excellent in comebacks against the Ravens, Patriots, and Bengals this year. Yes, he’s probably the best quarterback playing this weekend. No, he isn’t a lock to cover against bad opponents. He isn’t the reason Buffalo is still in second place in the AFC East, but he hasn’t been able to run up the score against good defenses. The Bills have played one defense in the top ten by DVOA all season, and they lost 23-19 to the Texans in Houston. Now they’re on the road against the 5th-ranked defense by DVOA in Cleveland. I don’t think Buffalo’s defense is good enough to totally blank most opponents, and I expect Myles Garrett and company to make life hard on Joshy and the Bills. Buffalo should win, but they’ve already lost three road games this year to the Falcons, Dolphins, and Texans. Browns +10.5
Miami Dolphins +4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati seemed disinterested in football last week, but Quinn Ewers is stepping in as the Dolphins’ QB here. Can De’Von Achane run all over the Bengals by himself and keep Miami afloat? Of course he can! Cincinnati is 30th against the run this year and that’s actually better than they are against the pass. No one, myself included, wants to pick Quinn Ewers making his first NFL start. But if I had to, it would be getting points at home against the worst defense in the league and with a coach who can scheme up some chunk plays. Dolphins +4
Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wow, we’ve landed in a really sad place with the NFC South. The 7-7 Panthers are getting three points at home against the 7-7 Buccaneers, and that seems a little crazy. How am I going to take Carolina here, though? Tampa Bay has had a rough stretch, but Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving are all back for their offense. Todd Bowles is 5-1 against the Panthers since taking over for the Bucs, and I don’t think they’re going to let the Panthers’ run game dictate terms. It feels like a throwback to the early weeks of the season, but we’re taking Tampa. Buccaneers -3
New Orleans Saints -6 vs. New York Jets
Okay, Tyler Shough is definitely better than I expected. That’s an incredibly low bar to clear. I still really hate the predicament this line has forced upon me. The Jets have the fourth-worst point differential in the league, so they have no problem losing by a lot, and they’re traveling to New Orleans with undrafted rookie Brady Cook under center. I truly can’t believe I’m doing this, but it’s a strange year. Saints -6
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Is Vegas even more down on J.J. McCarthy than I am? I think he’s pretty incompetent, but he’s traveling to take on the league’s 5th-worst defense by DVOA. Kevin O’Connell should be able to easily scheme up some points for the Vikings’ offense, and while Jaxon Dart has been good against the blitz, he’s facing a tough Defensive Coordinator in Brian Flores. I’m not big on this version of the Vikings, but there’s a gap between McCarthy and some of the undrafted or incredibly old quarterbacks starting this week. Vikings -2.5
Dallas Cowboys -2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I’m still mad at Dallas for letting the aforementioned J.J. McCarthy perform well against them last week. Neither of these teams have been easy to pick this season, and the Cowboys have been good at home, but I think the Chargers are the better team. If they can just work around the absences of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater against a team with the 4th-worse adjusted sack rate, they’ll find enough offense to pick up a road win here. Chargers +2
Tennessee Titans +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
There are two ways this game could go. The Titans, at home, could play a competent game on both sides of the ball, avoid backbreaking turnovers, and take advantage of an opponent with a losing record and Gardner Minshew filling in for Patrick Mahomes. Alternatively, the Chiefs could rally despite being eliminated from the playoffs and come up with a creative gameplan to accentuate Minshew’s strengths and win big over a mostly inferior opponent. I think it’s more likely we watch this game and come away saying, “wow, that’s what Patrick Mahomes has been propping up all year?!” Titans +3
Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
These teams are 24th and 21st in DVOA, both have losing records, and both are on their backup quarterbacks. So why are the Falcons favored by a full field goal on the road? The Cardinals have been crushed to the tune of a -95 point differential in the last six weeks while the Falcons have gone 2-2 since Kirk Cousins took over. That said, the Cardinals’ losses came against the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Rams, and Texans; the worst of those teams by DVOA is the Buccaneers at 18th. They can absolutely hang with Atlanta at home. Cardinals +3
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I can easily be wrong about this pick if Bo Nix proves me wrong or if Trevor Lawrence picks Week 16 to really kick me in the nethers. For all of the hype around Denver’s defense, the Jags are only two spots and less than two percentage points behind them in defensive DVOA. I have more faith in Lawrence and Liam Coen to figure out a tough-but-imperfect defense than Bo Nix, even with Sean Payton on his side. I think we’re in for a close one, so I’ll take the points. Jaguars +3
Houston Texans -14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This Texans team is seriously rolling. They’ve won six straight games, and their defense has only allowed more than 20 points twice all year. I think they’re going to hold Kenny Pickett under 10 at home, and we can watch the Raiders’ away point differential sink even lower. They’re now 1-6 on the road this season with a point differential of -126. I’m guessing it will be -140 or lower after this one. Texans -14
Detroit Lions -7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Lions have been vulnerable against aggressive offenses and inside pressures this season. Pittsburgh isn’t particularly good at either of those things, and the Detroit defense should be excited for a break after playing the Packers, Cowboys, and Rams in the past three weeks. I’m not passing up a chance for the Lions to embarrass Aaron Rodgers in one more visit to Ford Field. Lions -7
Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. New England Patriots
How often do you get a chance to pick an 11-3 team getting points against a 7-7 team? Baltimore is trying to round into playoff shape, but they still have major questions at multiple positions. Unless Mike Vrabel’s team is ready to really unravel down the stretch or Drake Maye regresses in a major way, this game should be competitive. Let’s take the points. Patriots +3
Indianapolis Colts +6 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I don’t know what the Seahawks were doing last week, but the 49ers now have some tape to show that Philip Rivers can’t throw the ball more than 5 yards downfield effectively. Their defense is vulnerable, but this should be an easy gameplan for Robert Saleh. The Niners always score points with Kyle Shanahan around, and if they jump out to a lead here they’ll be able to run away with things pretty easily. 49ers -6
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
