2025 NFL Picks Week 14: So Close to a Streak
I really thought we had something going a couple times last weekend. We started 2-1 on Thanksgiving, went 3-1 in the Sunday afternoon slate, and yet: another losing week on the ledger, thanks in part to a very surprising upset win for Da Bears over the Eagles. I definitely felt worse about the lines this week at first glance, but that means nothing this season. Let’s see what Week 14 has in store!
Detroit Lions -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I wanted to take the Lions at first glance, but their injury report, particularly in the secondary, is too troubling. Dak should play well indoors, and the Detroit offensive line isn’t playing well enough to get an easy win if their defense is giving up chunks to George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. I’m taking the full field goal. And so did the Cowboys! Tough to win with field goals when you give up 44 points to your opponent. Cowboys +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
There’s a long history of Tampa Bay Head Coach Todd Bowles dominating rookie quarterbacks, and Tyler Shough has certainly looked conquerable in four starts this season. The Buccaneers are getting healthier with Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back, and I’m hoping they’re ready to make a statement in the NFC South. The big spread should scare me, but I don’t like much of what New Orleans is doing these days. Buccaneers -8.5
New York Jets +3 vs. Miami Dolphins
If Tyrod Taylor continues to start for the Jets, their offense is stable enough to put up points on most teams. The Dolphins have somehow won three games in a row to get to 5-7, but without Tyreek Hill I don’t think they can reach the offensive gear they need to really blow opponents away. I’m not excited about it, but I don’t want to pass on a full field goal at home between two comparable teams. Jets +3
Cleveland Browns -4 vs. Tennessee Titans
Shedeur Sanders looked rough against the 49ers last week, and it’s hard to win by four points if your offense can’t reach ten. Of course, if they’re going to coast into double digits, it helps to play against the league’s worst team by DVOA. I don’t expect either offense to do much, but I do think the Cleveland defense can turn Cam Ward and company over a couple of times to win by this much at home, in what I assume is rough Ohio weather this time of year. Browns -4
Minnesota Vikings -2 vs. Washington Commanders
J.J. McCarthy should be back under center for the Vikings this week, so…they’re favored? There isn’t much to like about the Washington offense, but they’ve at least looked competent against good teams the past few weeks. Minnesota just has too many limitations with McCarthy to be favored against any but the very worst teams in the league, even at home, and the team’s vibes might be even worse than the quarterback play. Commanders +2
Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
By DVOA this line makes perfect sense and could even be bigger. Joe Burrow came back to the Bengals last week, though, and immediately knocked off the Ravens. He has a history of strong performances against the Bills, and nothing about Buffalo’s defense tells me they’re going to lock the Bengals up. I’m happy to be getting this many points even if I’m sure Josh Allen and James Cook can have their way with Cincy’s defense. Bengals +5.5
Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I wrote this entire segment for the opposite outcome but couldn’t bring myself to move on. The Ravens have been weird this year; they’re 6-6 and zero of their six wins have come by less than seven points. If they win, they blow their opponents out. Pittsburgh is the better team by DVOA, but some of Baltimore’s low rating comes from the weeks where Lamar and most of their best defensive players were all out. I don’t feel good taking the favorites in a divisional game with a line this large, but I think last week’s implosion against the Bills might have been the beginning of Pittsburgh’s death spiral down the stretch. Ravens -6
Atlanta Falcons +7 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Kirk Cousins is going against the league’s best defense by DVOA? I’m happy to be giving only a touchdown! Atlanta’s defense certainly isn’t the type of unit to expose all of Sam Darnold’s flaws, so it’s just the Seahawks against the long negative trend for west coast teams playing on the east coast in the early slate. That isn’t enough to move me. Seahawks -7
Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Here it is everyone, perhaps the last opportunity we’ll have to bet against Daniel Jones as a road favorite. Apparently the Colts’ QB is playing through a fractured fibula, and apparently it isn’t bad enough to make Riley Leonard a better option. The Indianapolis defense isn’t great, their run game has looked rough for the past few weeks, and the Jags are getting points at home. Jacksonville can always trip over their own feet and make their supporters look bad, but I think they’ll win at home here. Jaguars +1.5
Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 vs. Denver Broncos
I feel terrible doing this, but the Broncos have just been so mediocre on offense and on the road that I can’t pass up the opportunity to take this many points. The Raiders played the Broncos close in Denver just a couple of weeks ago, and the Broncos have zero road wins by more than four points all year. Blame it on Bo Nix. Raiders +7.5
Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears
I am a lifelong Bears fan. They’ve been a very interesting story this year, and picking up a road win against the Eagles was enough to start drawing me back in. Traveling to Green Bay to pick up a critical win is a different level of difficult, though, and I can’t put that much faith in my Bears just yet. Maybe it’s an emotional hedge, maybe it’s the cold hard lessons of 37 years of fandom. Packers -6.5
Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I think this is a sneaky big moment for the Rams. They played well against the Panthers last week, but lost by giving up too much on the ground and losing every coin flip outcome they encountered. The Cardinals are a divisional opponent but a clearly inferior one; if the Rams really deserve their status as the top dog in the NFC, they should be bouncing back with a revenge performance this week. The Cardinals (26th in rushing DVOA) aren’t nearly as good as the Panthers (13th) on the ground, and nothing they’ve done since their Week 8 bye makes me believe they can hang close with the best teams in the league. Rams -8
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 vs. Houston Texans
I like Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I like their Super Bowl odds because I’m not sure who really deserves to be a favorite, and I’d like their division odds if they hadn’t lost one game to the Broncos already. I don’t like any of that enough to take them by more than a field goal against what might be the best defense in the NFL. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis will cause more problems for C.J. Stroud than they did Dak Prescott last week, but this line should be lower with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter going against backups on the Chiefs’ line. Texans +3.5
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
There’s no way the Chargers should be significant underdogs to this version of the Eagles, but I can’t bring myself to take an injured Justin Herbert with two backup offensive tackles against Philly’s defensive front. The Eagles absolutely have problems - you don’t lose to the Bears if you’re firing on all cylinders - but the Chargers can’t run the ball the same way the Bears did last week, and Philadelphia is still 8-4. They can probably cover this if they just throw the ball to A.J. Brown some more. Eagles -2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
