2025 NFL Picks Week 3: I Mean...It WAS Better
Improvement was a low bar, but at least we cleared it. We may be in a deep hole, but this is the best I’ve felt about a full slate of picks heading into a week so far. If we can improve by the same amount in Week 3, we’ll go an exciting 8-8!
Buffalo Bills -13 vs. Miami Dolphins
It was a big spread, and I was counting on Josh Allen to go all-out against a team seemingly on the verge of quitting. Buffalo outgained the Dolphins by about 100 yards, won the turnover battle 1-0, and committed half as many penalties. If Matt Prater hits his 39-yard field goal in the first half, this one is a push. It’s a loss, but I don’t think we were off by much. Bills -13
Carolina Panthers +5.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Carolina might be the worst team in the league. They’ve spent over half the season by game time losing by at least two scores and their two opponents haven’t looked great against other teams. They played Atlanta tough last year, but I really like what we’ve seen from the Falcons in two solid performances against 2024 playoff teams. Michael Penix and Bijan Robinson should have a field day against a porous Panthers defense, and I just don’t believe in Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard enough to think they’ll keep up. Falcons -5.5
Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Just as we all hoped, it’s Carson Wentz against Jake Browning! I have no idea which direction to go here. Browning has been pretty effective filling in for Joe Burrow in the past, but the Vikings’ defense is a tough one for starting quarterbacks. Both teams will just be banking on big plays from their star receivers, and I like what the Bengals have with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown all healthy more than the Vikings without Aaron Jones or Jordan Addison. It’s enough for me to go Cincy with the full field goal. Bengals +3
Tennessee Titans +3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I’m not saying the Colts are this year’s Saints, who got off to a fast start last year and then fell apart. They’d need to suffer some more offensive line injuries to follow that path directly. But I AM saying that Daniel Jones is still Daniel Jones. The Tennessee defense has been pretty good so far, and I’ve seen enough from Cam Ward to believe they’re going to pick up their first win of the season pretty soon. I’m still very concerned about the Titans’ head coach only knowing the rules of the game “pretty well”, but I like getting more than a field goal at home. Titans +3.5
Cleveland Browns +8 vs. Green Bay Packers
This line is almost suspiciously low, but I guess the justification would be that Cleveland’s defense has looked pretty good in both of their losses. I’m as skeptical of Jordan Love’s ability to consistently beat good defenses as anyone, but the other side of the ball has some potential for disgust. Micah Parsons can casually jog to track down Joe Flacco, and the Browns have only scored 33 points in two games. This line should be double digits if Green Bay is as dominant as they’ve looked so far, and Cleveland isn’t good enough to expose their flaws anyway. Packers -8
Jacksonville Jaguars -2 vs. Houston Texans
Houston’s offensive line issues have persisted through two games, but this line is leaving them for dead at 0-2 already. The Jags have a win over the Panthers and a loss to the Jake Browning Bengals through two weeks, while the Texans have had two tough losses to the Rams and Buccaneers. If they’re going to turn their season around, this is the spot, and I get to take points and the best unit (Houston’s defense, obviously). Texans +2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 vs. New York Jets
Beware the overreactions from a Week 2 beatdown. Tampa Bay is the better team here, but Tyrod Taylor raises the floor filling in for the Jets and he’ll be facing a Bucs team on short rest; in the Tampa Bay-Houston Monday Night Football game we saw Baker get up gimpy, more offensive line injuries, and a bevy of big hits absorbed by Tampa’s skill position players. They should still win this game, but it’s too many points given the circumstances. Jets +6.5
New England Patriots +2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m surprised to be saying this, but I’m more concerned about the Pittsburgh defense than what Aaron Rodgers can do through two games. The Steelers’ offensive limitations are pretty manageable; Rodgers needs solid protection because he doesn’t move the way he used to, and the receiving corps is limited after DK Metcalf. Giving up 30+ points to the Jets and Seahawks, though, is a real red flag. Jalen Ramsey has had a couple flashes, but the unit as a whole just isn’t working. New England is still a work in progress, but I don’t think the talent gap between these teams is large enough for them to be home underdogs. Patriots +2
Washington Commanders -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
If Jayden Daniels plays, I feel great about this one. If it’s Marcus Mariota, I still feel okay about it. Washington has faced two tough defensive fronts in games against the Giants and Packers, but they have a big rest advantage coming into this game against a middling Raiders’ defense. Geno Smith has been up-and-down through two games, but the high point was 20 points against the Patriots. I’m expecting a return to form for the Commanders’ offense and a comfortable cover at home. Commanders -3.5
Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
It feels like a trap, but I think the Rams have been playing better football this season than the Eagles. Philadelphia might be slow-playing everyone, but their reluctance to push the ball downfield is going to cost them at some point. They might also get some officiating interference on the Tush Push this week after extra attention on (legitimately) illegal elements of the way they run it. Let’s roll with Matthew Stafford and the combination of Puka and Davante getting a full field goal on the road. Rams +3
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
I can’t quite put a finger on it, but there’s something wrong with the Denver defense. If it’s as simple as an injury to Pat Surtain II that’s an easy fix over time, but it means they’ll still be vulnerable this week. The Chargers were able to score pretty efficiently on the Broncos last season, and their defense has looked strong so far. Unless Bo Nix gets hot or Justin Herbert puts up a dud, the Chargers should cover a field goal at home. Chargers -2.5
Seattle Seahawks -7.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Laying this many points with Sam Darnold makes me uneasy, but picking Spencer Rattler on the road seems like an even worse idea. The Saints gave up 26 points to Mac Jones last week, and they’ll have issues containing Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker all game. Seattle’s defense is too good to allow Rattler to keep pace, especially with the home-field advantage they enjoy. Seahawks -7.5
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I went back and forth on this one a lot, and I have to pick the 49ers. Kyler Murray has just been too frustrating through two starts, and the Cardinals’ secondary is just as banged up as the 49ers receiving corps. The difference there is depth, as Mac Jones still gets to throw to Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey in Kyle Shanahan’s system. Arizona could surprise me and put together a comprehensive win over a quality team, but it hasn’t been good business banking on that in the Kyler Murray era. 49ers -2.5
Chicago Bears +1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This might be the first reasonable test for Caleb Williams to face in the Ben Johnson era. The Dallas defense was horrendous last week in an almost-loss to the Giants, and Chicago shouldn’t have any issue putting up points if they’ve made meaningful strides on offense. Unfortunately, the Bears’ secondary is banged up and they haven’t been able to stop the run all season. I like the prospect of Caleb throwing to D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze against this Cowboys team, but I’m terrified of what Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens will do to us. Cowboys -1
New York Giants +6.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This is as close to a must-win game as the Chiefs could have this early in the season, and they might be getting Xavier Worthy back for it. Russell Wilson isn’t dipping into his bag of magic tricks for a second consecutive week, and even if he’s better than he was in Week 1, the Chiefs’ defense is going to be prepared. Lost amid all the hand-wringing about the Chiefs’ “unimpressive” 15-2 record last season was consistent comfortable wins against bad, non-divisional opponents. They just didn’t face many of them, and the Giants definitely fit the bill. Chiefs -6.5
Baltimore Ravens -5 vs. Detroit Lions
These are two top-tier teams from a talent perspective, and we saw Baltimore thrash Detroit just two years ago in a similar matchup. Both teams lost in the Conference Championship round that season, and they’ve both undergone significant changes since then. Most importantly for our picks, this Ravens’ defense is nowhere near the unit that held just about everyone in check in 2023. I don’t want to pick against the Lions and this many points when Baltimore hasn’t demonstrated the ability to lock good offenses up down the stretch. Lions +5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
