2025 NFL Picks Week 4: So You're Saying There's a Chance
Okay, I was hoping for 8-8 last week to continue our upward trend on the same trajectory. If the Patriots could hold on to the ball and the Rams could block for field goal attempts, we probably would have had it! Alas, the improvement was less dramatic and we’re even further in the hole. But we are getting a better feel for the strange versions of these teams we’re seeing in the 2025-26 season, and a little regression should be coming. Let’s get to the Week 4 picks!
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are currently first in DVOA, and while I don’t truly trust Sam Darnold I absolutely trust Seattle’s defense. They’ve now allowed just four touchdowns through three games, and they put the clamps on Arizona’s offense in both meetings last season: a 16-6 win at home and a 30-18 win in the desert. The Cardinals don’t have enough of a home field advantage to factor in here and they’re without James Conner. Seattle is the better team and they’re far healthier coming into this Thursday Night Football matchup. Seahawks -1.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 “vs.” Minnesota Vikings
This game is in Ireland, so there’s no home field advantage to consider. Both teams are 2-1, but I think the Vikings have all of the matchup advantages. Brian Flores’ defense made life miserable for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets last year, holding him to 4.5 yards per attempt, intercepting and sacking him three times apiece, and forcing a fumble. Rodgers’ supporting cast isn’t considerably better this season, and while I don’t want to count on Carson Wentz, he played well enough in a very comfortable offensive system last week. Now he’ll get to throw to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison against a Pittsburgh defense that gave up 30+ points to Justin Fields and Sam Darnold. The Steelers should have lost to the Patriots last week, and the Vikings won’t let them skate by here. Vikings -2.5
New England Patriots -5.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Why are the 1-2 Patriots favored by so much over the 1-2 Panthers? Carolina finally looked good last week, and while holding on to the football would be enough to fix a lot of New England’s problems (four fumbles, lost all four last week), they have some real talent shortcomings that won’t be fixed this year. This could be the week Drake Maye puts it all together and runs away with a win, but he’s only won two games by this many points in his career. Too many points for the version of the Patriots we’ve seen to-date. Panthers +5.5
Detroit Lions -9 vs. Cleveland Browns
I try not to read too much into how teams perform at home and on the road, partly because significant home field advantages are rare and partly because there’s so much noise around opponent quality. That said, since Week 7 of last year, Cleveland is 3-11. All three of those wins came at home, and the margin of defeat in six road losses (-18.3 points per game) is far higher than in their five home losses (-11.2 points per game). Maybe it’s because the Browns’ biggest strength is their pass rush, which is bolstered by crowd noise, or maybe their offense struggles more in hostile environments. Whatever it is, I’m happy taking a reborn Lions team giving single digits at home against Cleveland. Lions -9
Buffalo Bills -16.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
I’m continuing the theme from the last pick here. Including the playoffs, Buffalo has won 18 games since the start of last season. They’re 12-0 at home and 6-5 on the road. Five of those twelve home wins have come by 17+ points, and the other seven came against the Ravens (twice), Dolphins (twice), Chiefs, Patriots, and Cardinals. This year’s New Orleans team is much closer in quality to the blowout victims who traveled to Buffalo last year: Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Francisco, the Jets, and Denver. I just can’t imagine the Saints slowing Josh Allen and James Cook down, and Spencer Rattler trying to play catch-up is a recipe for disaster. Bills -16.
Houston Texans -7 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Texans absolutely need to win this game. They’re off to an 0-3 start, but one score losses to the Rams and Buccaneers are hardly embarrassing. Losing by a touchdown to the Jaguars might not look terrible by the end of the season, but the way in which Houston is losing is hard to ignore. Their offensive line is a dumpster fire, and they’ve now scored just three touchdowns in three games. Tennessee might be one of the worst teams in the league, and they sure aren’t playing clean football, but getting a full touchdown here is too much to pass up. The Texans are due for a win, the Titans are due to lose by just one score, and I think we’ll get both. Titans +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Bucs have mostly had the Eagles’ number in the Jalen Hurts era. Tom Brady led them to a 28-22 win in October of 2021 and a Wild Card victory in January 2022. The Eagles got some revenge in 2023, but then Baker Mayfield stomped them in the Wild Card matchup in January 2024 and again last year in Week 4. Something about Todd Bowles’ defense seems to give Philadelphia problems, but this game has too many notable injuries for me to expect more of the same. Tampa Bay might be getting Tristan Wirfs back, which would be huge because he’s an All-Pro caliber player and also because their projected starting Center is currently filling in for him at Left Tackle. They’re still down their opening day Right Guard and Right Tackle, though, and we have plenty of recent evidence of what the Eagles can do to subpar offensive lines. Mike Evans is also out for the Bucs, and if Chris Godwin can play it will be his first game in almost a year. I would love to be wrong, but I think Tampa Bay might just be too injured in all the wrong places for this matchup this week. Eagles -3.5
New York Giants +6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
If we’re in for another year of the Justin Herbert rollercoaster, we’ll see him pressured by a solid Giants’ front four and end up with a surprisingly close game against a clearly inferior opponent. If, however, he’s really taken a step, the Chargers should be able to handle this team with ease. There’s also the possibility that Jaxson Dart isn’t good or just isn’t ready for what an above average NFL defense will throw at him. If I’m wrong about all of those hypotheticals, so be it. Chargers -6.5
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs. Washington Commanders
I don’t think this is an overreaction to Atlanta’s embarrassing 30-0 loss to the Panthers last week, but I can’t guarantee it. Michael Penix might be bumping up against his ceiling without additional development, and for all of the excitement Bijan Robinson highlights provide, the Falcons’ offense is looking firmly “meh” as it has for the entirety of his career. Marcus Mariota is a competent fill-in for Jayden Daniels, and we just saw the short-handed Commanders beat up on a bad team. I think they’ll do it again here. Commanders -1.5
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
There are two things about the Colts I just don’t think are sustainable. One is the mistake-free play of Daniel Jones, and one is the performance of their defense. They’re intertwined to some extent, and I think we’ll see the result of that this week. Matthew Stafford is going to carve up the Colts’ defense with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua available, and if the Rams get out to a lead the pressure will be on Jones to make plays to keep up. That’s where I see the wheels coming off, at least against top competition. Rams -3.5
San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m not wildly impressed by what the Jaguars have accomplished so far because their schedule has been easy and they still managed to lose a game. Their defense looked pretty vulnerable against Jake Browning, which makes the Texans’ struggles last week even more concerning. But here they’re playing an extremely injured 49ers team who just added Nick Bosa to the IR last week. I don’t know that they’re the better team, but getting 3 points against Mac Jones is too tempting to pass up. Jaguars +3
Las Vegas Raiders -1 vs. Chicago Bears
I was going to hand-wave some of the Raiders’ early-season struggles, but as discussed on the podcast, Pete Carroll is indulging in some classic nepotism with his son in the Offensive Line Coach position. Guess where the Raiders have been really bad this year! I’m not saying a qualified professional coach would fix the issues, but maybe Ashton Jeanty would have more rushing yards than yards after contact. I don’t like anything Chicago’s defense has done, but if Caleb continues playing the way he has and we just stop Tre Tucker, we can definitely win this one on the road. Bears +1
Kansas City Chiefs +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City is getting a full field goal at home against a team that can’t seem to play defense. Of course Lamar scares the heck out of me with this pick, but do you really expect me to pick the Ravens as road favorites after their uninspiring start? Chiefs +3
Dallas Cowboys +7 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Cowboys’ best player from last season (Micah Parsons) is now on the opposite sideline. Their second best player (CeeDee Lamb) is out, and their offense tanked against a vulnerable Bears defense as soon as he left the game last week. Green Bay has owned Dallas for a while now, including Jordan Love’s huge win against them in the Wild Card Round two seasons ago. None of this looks good for the Cowboys, and I can’t wait to hear what Jerry Jones has to say about it after the game. Packers -7
Miami Dolphins -3 vs. New York Jets
I don’t like the Dolphins favored by this much when they’re 28th in Total DVOA and 31st in Defensive DVOA. The Jets probably should have won last week and they’ll pick up their first win of the Aaron Glenn era this weekend. Hopefully we get to see him strut again. Jets +3
Denver Broncos -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
There’s no way Jake Browning will look as bad this week as he did against the Vikings, right? That almost has to be true because he probably won’t lose by 38, but I guess we don’t need that to cover the spread here. All we need is for the Denver offense to wake up a little bit at home for the first time since Week 1, and for their defense to play like the top-level unit they should be. I’m a little nervous because Cincy dropped 30 points on them at the end of last season, but with Joe Burrow out and the Bengals’ defense still lost, I’m taking Denver. Broncos -7
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
