2025 NFL Picks Week 5: Don't Call it a Comeback
Calling it a strange start to the season is an understatement. The Jacksonville Jaguars are third in Defensive DVOA, blocked kicks are being returned for touchdowns on a weekly basis, and a 70-yard field goal is coming any day now. We can work around all of this, though, if we keep cool and focus on what’s sustainable. Let’s get to Week 5!
Los Angeles Rams -8 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I was all set to take the 49ers in this matchup, based on a long history of close divisional games and old school scheming by Kyle Shanahan. Then an injury update came across, confirming Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings would all be joining Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle on the bench this week. Somehow Christian McCaffrey got it done with Mac Jones, 30-year old Kendrick Bourne, 30-year old Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 31-year old Demarcus Robinson, and Jake Tonges. Unbelievable. Rams -8
Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Would I rather pick washed up Carson Wentz against a top-tier talent defense or rookie Dillon Gabriel against a top-tier schematic defense? I’d rather watch any other combination of teams to start my Sunday morning, but at least I won’t feel like I’m missing out while doing yardwork with the little dude. I’m remembering what I said last week about Cleveland being far more competitive at home, and London certainly ain’t that for the Browns. Vikings -3.5
New York Jets +2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas’ offense looked great in their 40-40 tie against the Packers last week and Dak Prescott has looked excellent overall this season. There is a bit of an issue with his home/road splits, though; his yards per attempt is about 1.5 lower on the road, and his TD:INT ratio goes from 5:1 to 1:2. I think they’re headed for a bit of a letdown here, and the Jets have to get their first win sometime, right? Right?! Jets +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Speaking of home/road splits, Bo Nix is 4-7 on the road in his career with only one win against a team with a winning record. This Eagles defense should pressure him all day, and while Philadelphia’s offense hasn’t put together a convincing start-to-finish performance yet, there’s always a chance. I really liked the Denver defense coming into this season, but I’ll need to see them hold someone other than Cam Ward and the Jake Browning Bengals under 20 points before I count on them to beat quality teams on the road. Eagles -3.5
Baltimore Ravens +1.5 vs. Houston Texans
I know the Ravens seem injured beyond repair, but are we really ready to make them home underdogs against a Texans team who scored 38 points in three games against non-Titans opponents? Cooper Rush isn’t a good NFL quarterback and the Houston defense is scary, but he can throw the ball a little bit and Baltimore can lean on Derrick Henry much more with Lamar Jackson out. I’m not ready to get back on the Texans wagon, especially against a team that has beaten them by an average of 21.4 points per game in four meetings since 2020, including a 31-2 beatdown just last Christmas. Ravens +1.5
Carolina Panthers +1 vs. Miami Dolphins
Carolina plays a lot better at home than they do on the road, and I don’t know how much offense Miami can find with Tyreek Hill now out for the season. I really don’t want to pick the Panthers, but can’t pass on a home underdog against the Dolphins. Panthers +1
New Orleans Saints -2 vs. New York Giants
There’s far too much Jaxson Dart love reflected in this line. The Saints have a real home field advantage, they were surprisingly competitive against the Bills last week, and the Giants don’t have Malik Nabers anymore. New Orleans should at least be getting the standard home line here. Saints -2
Indianapolis Colts -6.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Look, I’m still hesitant about the Colts’ ceiling when it comes to making a real run in the playoffs, but with the way Daniel Jones is operating, they are a legitimate NFL team. I’m not sure the same can be said of the Raiders after their loss to the Bears last week. Lou Anarumo is licking his chops to scheme against this version of Geno Smith, and Indianapolis can lean on Jonathan Taylor to salt the game away at home. Colts -6.5
Arizona Cardinals -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Until further notice, I will not be taking the Titans as single-digit underdogs. Since their bye last season, the Titans have played 17 games. They are 2-15 and they’ve only lost 2 of those games by less than a touchdown. They’re on the road here for a second consecutive week and the Cardinals have a rest advantage after playing last Thursday night. My wife doesn’t like me counting on the Cardinals, but I can’t back Tennessee anymore. Cardinals -7.5
Seattle Seahawks -4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ve been enjoying the Baker Mayfield experience as much as the next guy, but Tampa Bay is a little lucky to be sitting at 3-1. That’s fine, because they’re getting healthier and have already banked three wins, but I think they’re going to have some trouble traveling to Seattle to play what might be the best defense in the NFL right now. If Bucky Irving is joining Mike Evans on the bench this week, it feels like a schedule loss for the Bucs. Seahawks -4
Cincinnati Bengals +10 vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions stomp bad teams at home and on the road, and the Bengals are absolutely a bad team right now. I expected more with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins available, but Detroit isn’t the team to get right against. There’s a chance the receivers play well enough to keep things interesting, but I can’t imagine Cincinnati’s defense keeping the Lions under 40 if they need to get there. Lions -10
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Washington Commanders
I wish I could say I can’t believe the Chargers lost to the Giants last week, but between a long historical precedent and the mid-game loss of Joe Alt, I can believe it. It sounds like Jayden Daniels will be back for this game, but if his mobility is still limited and Terry McLaurin is out, they might not be able to expose the Chargers’ defensive flaws. I’m counting on Justin Herbert to bounce back in a big way at home. Chargers -2.5
Buffalo Bills -8 vs. New England Patriots
In the last two years, these teams have played three competitive games (Week 18 last year was Joe Milton vs. the backups). The Bills are 2-1 with a point differential of +5. If New England can avoid fumbling the ball away all day long, their offense can absolutely put points up against a weak Buffalo defense. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen will be doing his thing, but the Pats should slow things down enough to lose a close one. Patriots +8
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This might be your last chance to take the 2025-26 Kansas City Chiefs as small favorites against mediocre competition this year. We told you to jump on their AFC West odds a couple weeks ago, but if you missed that train you might still be able to make the Patrick Mahomes MVP one (+660). Chiefs -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
