2025 NFL Picks Week 6: Blame it on the Cardinals
Another extremely disappointing performance in the picks has us 22 games under .500 through five weeks. When things seem darkest, I remind myself I’m not the Cardinals, whose absurd loss to the Titans last week also knocked me out of my survivor league. Any objections to burning it all down?
New York Giants +7.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Honestly I hadn’t settled on a pick for this game before it kicked off, but my initial note on Monday had me leaning Eagles, so I’m going to take the loss here. I was skeptical of Philadelphia’s long-term outlook with personnel losses on the defense and the offensive line, but I certainly didn’t expect them to collapse this spectacularly. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs must be watching Jalen Hurts miss wide open receivers and Cam Skattebo shove Eagles’ defensive linemen aside and wonder who they played in the Super Bowl just eight months ago. Eagles -7.5
New York Jets +7.5 “vs.” Denver Broncos
The Jets are the lone winless team, and unless we expect a 2008 Lions or 2017 Browns situation, it feels risky banking on continued ineptitude. That said, Denver is rounding into form and the Jets’ defense doesn’t seem interested in doing enough to significantly limit what Sean Payton can draw up for Bo Nix. Denver’s defense should have no issue throttling Justin Fields, and with both teams facing the same time zone disadvantage, a two-score win is a reasonable ask. Broncos -7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland faces a pretty wicked rest disadvantage here, returning from a trip to Europe to face a Steelers’ team coming off their bye. But are we really ready to count on the Steelers to dominate their opponents? Cleveland’s defense is really good, and Jim Schwartz might be smart enough to prevent the 60+ yard DK Metcalf touchdown Pittsburgh relies on to break 20 points every week. I don’t feel great about it, but this spread is too big for me to take a home team who doesn’t like throwing more than 5 yards downfield. Browns +5
Indianapolis Colts -7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Yes, I’m still salty about the Arizona collapse last week. Yes, the Colts came through for us in a big way. I’m not afraid to go back to the well for two reasons: first, the Colts’ run game won’t have any issues against Arizona’s banged up defense, meaning Daniel Jones won’t be forced to win the game on his own. Second, the Cardinals are down to their third-string running back and potentially their second-string quarterback, and now they’re on the road. Maybe they’re the type of team who suffers an embarrassing loss and rebounds hard the next week, but I’m willing to bet they aren’t. Colts -7.5
Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Carolina has been much better at home than they’ve been on the road, and it’s almost enough to make me pick them here against a Dallas team with huge liabilities all over their defense. I just can’t bring myself to pick a bad team against this version of Dak Prescott, though. The Panthers lost at home to the Cooper Rush version of these Cowboys last year, and Dak should really light them up this week. Carolina can’t afford to fall behind like they did against Miami, but they’re not consistent enough to avoid it. Cowboys -3
New Orleans Saints +4 vs. New England Patriots
The Saints haven’t been as bad as people expected this year, but I’m not sure they’ve been considerably better. A home win over Jaxson Dart in his second career start is their only one of the season, and playing competitively isn’t enough to cover this line. There’s room for a letdown after the Patriots picked up their big win over Buffalo last week, but I give the edge to New England at coach, quarterback, and defense, especially with Christian Gonzales back in the mix. Drake Maye could definitely mess this one up, but I’m taking the better team. Patriots -4
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Honestly, what do we want from this version of the Ravens? Cooper Rush at quarterback, Kyle Hamilton and not much else on defense, and a version of Derrick Henry they seem reluctant to lean on in Lamar Jackson’s absence. There are only so many injuries any team can withstand, and I haven’t seen evidence from the Baltimore coaching staff that they can scheme things to their advantage to turn the tables week-to-week. The Rams are coming off a little extra rest and should be hungry for a big win after blowing their game against the 49ers. Rams -7.5
Miami Dolphins +4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I don’t like either of these teams much at the moment, but I’m more troubled by the Chargers’ inability to adapt to the absence of their two starting tackles than I am Miami’s adaptations to Tyreek Hill’s injury. Nothing I’ve seen from the Chargers in their back-to-back losses to the Giants and Commanders makes me think they deserve to be road favorites of more than a field goal, and unless Justin Herbert puts the whole team on his back and wrecks Miami’s defense without an offensive line, this will be a close finish. Dolphins +4
Jacksonville Jaguars -1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Jaguars are going to hit a wall. They should have lost to the Chiefs last week, and Trevor Lawrence isn’t good enough to expose Seattle’s weaknesses all game long. I’m a little nervous about Sam Darnold facing a team who has been generating turnovers regularly, but maybe that’s what the extra point is for. Seahawks +1
Las Vegas Raiders -4 vs. Tennessee Titans
It’s games like this that really make me hate writing up picks for every game each week. I want nothing to do with these two teams for the rest of the season, but here we are. If Geno Smith is going to bounce back to any degree this season, this is the spot. Cam Ward and the Titans are really bad on both sides of the ball, and they should be 0-5. Raiders -4
Green Bay Packers -14.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Flacco has a chance to beat the Packers twice in one season despite playing in a different division! Unfortunately, Cincinnati’s defense, offensive line, and run game are all worse than what Cleveland had to support him. I hope I’m wrong, but Green Bay should really run away with this game at home. Packers -14.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
How long can Baker keep this run up? He’s going to throw more interceptions eventually, but no one on the San Francisco defense is really scaring me and Tristan Wirfs is back to shore up the offensive line issues Tampa dealt with earlier in the season. Mac Jones is on the road here, and I don’t trust him to make anything happen beyond what Kyle Shanahan can scheme up. Tampa Bay deserves a little more credit than this given the schedule they’ve played on their way to a 4-1 record. Buccaneers -3
Kansas City Chiefs -2 vs. Detroit Lions
I believe in Patrick Mahomes as much as anyone who follows the NFL, but without Rashee Rice their offense can’t consistently take advantage of the weak spots on other teams. Detroit shouldn’t have any trouble running all over this version of Kansas City’s defense, and with both teams scoring points I’ll take the one I trust more in the red zone. Lions +2
Atlanta Falcons +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
I can’t believe I’m doing this, but Buffalo’s run defense has been so bad this year that I simply have to side with the Falcons at home in this game. Bijan Robinson should have an absolute field day, and while I won’t doubt Josh Allen enough to count on Atlanta to win, they should definitely cover this spread at home against a team who just lost to the Patriots in Buffalo. Falcons +4.5
Washington Commanders -4.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Maybe Ben Johnson has worked a lot of magic over the bye week, but I think the Bears are still a work in progress. Both teams have played the Raiders in the last 20 days; Washington won by 17 with their backup quarterback and Chicago won by 1 despite intercepting three passes. This line should be bigger for the home team. Commanders -4.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
