2025 NFL Picks Week 8: Imagine Your Success Picking Against Me
Okay, doing the picks on a short week turned out to be a mistake. I’m amazed at how consistently the bounces have gone against us, but there’s still time left to salvage our season. Just think of us as last year’s Bengals, who nearly made the playoffs after such a disastrous start! That's the kind of outcome we can reasonably aspire to.
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I’m having trouble getting the image of last week’s hideous Chargers jerseys out of my head as I evaluate these two teams. I don’t like the idea of picking Carson Wentz, but he’s been perfectly fine with Kevin O’Connell calling the plays. With Aaron Jones back in action, Minnesota’s offense should pose enough problems in a rare away game with home-crowd advantage to get to 20 points. On the other side of the ball, I’m not sure the Chargers’ offense is varied enough to take advantage of Minnesota’s flaws. They’re struggling to find a run game with Omarion Hampton out and injuries along their offensive line, and as much as I enjoy watching Justin Herbert, he’ll need to be at his best just to get the win here. Vikings +3.5
Carolina Panthers +7 vs. Buffalo Bills
Okay, hear me out. The Bills are probably a Super Bowl contender, and the Panthers are pretty definitively not. However, Carolina can run the ball like crazy and usually plays considerably better at home than they do on the road. Buffalo has looked a little rough in recent weeks, and while I expect their offense to bounce back in this one, their defense has been awful against the run. If Carolina can avoid big turnovers on offense, they should definitely keep this one within a touchdown. Panthers +7
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears
An interesting line here for a 1-5 team hosting a 4-2 team. Obviously Baltimore should be better this week coming off a bye and with Lamar Jackson back in the lineup, but has anything fixed their defense? Everyone has moved the ball against the Ravens this year, and this line feels too big for a team with obvious weaknesses, even if I don’t fully trust Chicago’s offense. Bears +6.5
New England Patriots -7 vs. Cleveland Browns
I guess the general public is still hesitant to trust Drake Maye against a top-tier defense, but I think I’m there. He’s been so accurate this season that it’s hard to see New England really getting stuck in the mud unless they’re dominated by Myles Garrett and the Browns’ front. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland can only count on their run game because Dillon Gabriel is not the guy, and their best wide receivers might be their tight ends. It’s a big line, but New England is at home and poised to make a statement. Patriots -7
Atlanta Falcons -7.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
I generally try to avoid factoring in vibes when evaluating teams, but it’s hard to find a team with worse vibes than Miami. The players can’t seem to agree on whether players-only meetings are important or when they start, the coach seems strung out from being on the hot seat so long, and their defense just let Quinshon Judkins run all over them. The Falcons are back at home and should be licking their chops after a disappointing showing in San Francisco. Bijan Robinson can take us home in this one. Falcons -7.5
Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 vs. New York Giants
Do we think a one-score win over Carson Wentz’s Vikings was enough to re-establish the Eagles as a dominant force? We just watched the Giants trounce the Eagles two weeks ago, and I have no idea what has changed enough since then to justify this spread in a divisional matchup. Of course the Eagles are capable of stomping the Giants, but I haven’t seen a complete performance from them yet this season. Giants +7.5
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 vs. New York Jets
I don’t know what to say about the Jets anymore, and I don’t think they’ll go winless for the year, but they don’t really do anything well. Joe Flacco is happy to throw balls up for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins all game, and with this one in Cincy I’m not sure I believe in Tyrod Taylor to keep pace. They’re averaging just 17 points per game this year and they’ve only held Bo Nix and Bryce Young under 20 points. Bengals -6.5
Houston Texans -1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
It’s really hard to pick against the 49ers when Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are both healthy, but at some point their extensive injuries are going to cause real problems. I think this is the right situation to pick against them, because the 49ers pass rush isn’t terrifying against the vulnerable Houston offensive line and what Houston does on defense is dangerous to all of their opponents. It’s going to be a tight game, but I like C.J. Stroud and company coming away with a win at home. Texans -1.5
New Orleans Saints +4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not sure how many of Tampa Bay’s injured players will be back this week, but I really don’t have any confidence in what we’ve seen from New Orleans this year. The Saints have only stayed within four points in one game this season, and the Buccaneers are too good to make it easy on them. Unless Baker Mayfield is injured and doesn’t bounce back from a tough showing against the Lions, Tampa Bay should win comfortably. Buccaneers -4
Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I don’t trust anything about the Denver offense, and Dak Prescott has been on a roll all season. If he keeps it up with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens both healthy, they’ll have no trouble keeping pace with the very inconsistent Bo Nix. Cowboys +3.5
Indianapolis Colts -14 vs. Tennessee Titans
This feels like too big of a spread to count on Daniel Jones to cover, but we haven’t seen anything encouraging from the Titans all year. Indianapolis should have no trouble running the ball, and Cam Ward definitely hasn't broken out yet. Maybe the Titans bounce back sometime this season, but I don’t think it happens this week. Colts -14
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
I’m still skeptical of what the Steelers are capable of in the long run, but they’ve played well enough this season to make me think they’ll score points against the Packers. Jordan Love has been perfectly fine, and Green Bay’s offense seems to score in the 20s pretty easily, but they never seem to really run away with one. Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh will keep this one close at home in a Rodgers revenge game. Steelers +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 vs. Washington Commanders
The Chiefs are picking up steam, and I have no faith in Marcus Mariota to perform against good defenses. The Commanders could, in theory, score enough points to keep things competitive, but I’m not willing to count on it with Daniels out and the game at Arrowhead. Chiefs -12.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
