2025 NFL Picks Week 9: Cross-Examination
We like to think we’re open to new ideas here at Questionably Qualified, and in the midst of by far the longest losing streak of our career, it feels appropriate to change things up a bit. Usually the picks process begins with marking our lean and then diving into the stats to see what we might be missing, but clearly that hasn’t been working. So now we’ll try explaining the opposite side of our initial lean to see what merits the opposing case has. If I was really confident in this method, I’d say hop aboard now despite the horrible year-to-date record. We have to start somewhere!
Miami Dolphins +7.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
If I was going to pick the Ravens, I’d be counting on a returning Lamar Jackson to give the offense a big boost and the rollercoaster Dolphins to follow up their big win over Atlanta with a poor showing at home. I’d have to count on a little luck, like Baltimore winning the turnover battle and the red zone efficiency battle by enough to overcome having very comparable offensive numbers. If Baltimore was going to cover more than a touchdown with what has been a very patchwork defense, they’d have to limit Miami’s points at home where they’ve scored exactly 27 points in three games this year, against the Patriots, Jets, and Chargers. Well, the Ravens won the turnover battle 3-0, the red zone battle 100% to 0%, and limited the Dolphins to 6 points on 332 yards of offense. Cool. Dolphins +7.5
New England Patriots -5.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Yax and I are very over the Atlanta Falcons, but if we were going to take them in this spot, we’d be banking on Michael Penix and Drake London returning, the Atlanta defense looking more like the team that held Buffalo to 14 points than the one that allowed Mac Jones to get to 20 and Tua to light them up, and an absolutely monster game from Bijan Robinson against the league’s 5th-best run defense. I’d also need to doubt Drake Maye’s ability to run up the score at home against a team that lost 30-0 in Carolina earlier this season. The stats might not capture it, but I think these teams are headed in opposite directions. Patriots -5.5
Green Bay Packers -13 vs. Carolina Panthers
If I was going to pick the Panthers, I’d say this number is too high to ignore and that the strong Carolina run game shouldn’t have any trouble pushing Green Bay around on the road. I’d focus on how skeptical I am of Jordan Love’s real value, and how he’s largely racked up good stats against the worst defenses in the league. But Carolina’s defense is just 18th in DVOA, and we know they can’t play from behind; that’s why they’ve already lost three games by more than 13 points this season. So we’re taking the Packers at home. Packers -13
Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 vs. Chicago Bears
If I was going to take the Bears here, I’d have to believe they could move the ball efficiently enough against the league’s worst defense by DVOA to outweigh the big plays they’ll certainly allow to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. I’d need to count on Jake Browning starting for the Bengals instead of Joe Flacco, because Cincy has either won or lost by less than a field goal against every opponent with a bad defense, and only Browning could really put that in jeopardy. I’d probably need a little more confidence in Caleb Williams to win on the road against a team with offensive firepower. Bengals +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
If I were taking the Steelers as home underdogs, I’d have to think this is the week the Colts’ offense comes undone, and that the 22nd-ranked Pittsburgh defense is the unit to undo it. I would need to believe in Aaron Rodgers to put up enough points to keep pace even if the Steelers fall behind the Jonathan Taylor show. I have plenty of doubts about Daniel Jones against top-tier competition, but this Steelers team ain’t that. Colts -3
Houston Texans -1.5 vs. Denver Broncos
If I were to back the Texans, I’d be hoping their offensive line issues would be less exposed at home and that their offense could replicate what they’ve done against the Titans, Ravens, and 49ers. I’d have to look past truly putrid showings against Seattle, Tampa Bay, and the Rams, wherein good defenses made the Texans look utterly lost, or doubt Denver’s ability to get pressure against C.J. Stroud. I’d need to feel a lot more confident backing Stroud and a terrible offensive line than I do Bo Nix and a top-10 unit in Denver, and my offensive line love can’t allow me to go that far. Broncos +1.5
Detroit Lions -8.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
This one is pretty straightforward. If I was going to pick the Vikings going into Detroit to take on the Lions coming off a bye, I’d have to really believe in J.J. McCarthy, because the Lions almost always score 30+ points against the Vikings. Lions -8.5
Tennessee Titans +9.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
If I were going to take the Titans, I’d be picking the demonstrably worse team and banking on some combination of home field advantage and development from Cam Ward. I’d be expecting some kind of regression from a Chargers offense that has looked much better with Joe Alt back, and maybe a bit of a dead cat bounce from a Tennessee team that has lost six of their eight games this season by double digits. I think it’s more likely they turn things around after the bye. Chargers -9.5
New York Giants +2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
To take the 49ers as road favorites, I’d have to think the Giants are lost without Cam Skattebo and that Kyle Shanahan can generate points with any set of players he puts on the field. I’d expect Jaxson Dart to run into bigger problems against the 49ers than what he’s seen from Denver and Philadelphia, because 20 points should be enough to cover this spread. I don’t know how the 49ers can keep doing it with so many key contributors out. Giants +2.5
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I’d need to think the bye week was all the Raiders needed to find their rhythm to take them at home here against a statistically superior team also coming off a bye. I think their problems run a lot deeper. Jaguars -3
Los Angeles Rams -14 vs. New Orleans Saints
I would have picked the Rams with this spread against the Spencer Rattler version of the Saints, so I’d have to think Tyler Shough was a better quarterback to change my mind. Or that New Orleans suddenly found some extra motivation the playoff-aspiring Rams don’t have. Neither seems likely. Rams -14
Buffalo Bills +2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
If I was going to pick the Bills, I’d be counting on a history of regular season success against the Mahomes Chiefs. I’d think the offensive improvements from Kansas City aren’t enough to overcome Buffalo’s ability to run the ball and control the clock, and that Buffalo’s poor play in recent weeks is more aberration than trend. Or I’d have to think Josh Allen had actually overtaken Mahomes in the quarterback hierarchy. Chiefs -2
Washington Commanders +3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
If I was backing Washington as a home underdog, I’d have to think their defense could put Sam Darnold in a bind, because I know Seattle’s defense is going to cause problems. Or I’d have to think Daniels was back to 100%, where the threat of him running opens things up for Jacory Croskey-Merritt even with a largely injured receiving corps. I don’t trust Washington’s defense enough to turn Darnold over and get the win. Seahawks -3
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
If I were banking on the Cowboys, I’d be picking a team with two regulation wins as a favorite. I would have to believe their home field advantage is too strong to overcome, and that Dak Prescott’s poor showing last week was just the product of playing a good defense on the road. I’d definitely need to doubt Arizona’s ability to move the ball against the league’s second-worst defense more than I do. Cardinals +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
