2025 NFL Picks Week 10: Costanza
There are moments in all pursuits when you need to decide if continuing on is really worth it. We have absolutely hit that point in our 2025-26 picks journey. We are 35 games under .500, which means two consecutive perfect weeks wouldn’t be enough to bring us even. There is only one rational response to the situation: we’re going Costanza.
In the 22nd episode of Seinfeld’s 5th season, George realizes every instinct he’s had in life has been wrong, to which Jerry responds, “if every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.” The world of NFL picks where the lines are designed to be even and there’s always a right and wrong answer? Perfect environment to try it out.
Denver Broncos -9.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
My gut instinct was to take the Broncos here, because they’re fourth in defensive DVOA facing the league’s 30th-ranked offense and they’re at home, against a team who just played a full overtime period last Sunday. But trusting our gut is what got us here! The Broncos have just two wins by double digits this season, and they came against the Bengals and Cowboys who rank 32nd and 31st in defensive DVOA. The Raiders, despite having no big name players beyond Maxx Crosby, rank 13th in defensive DVOA, and while I’m still nervous about their offense, the return of Brock Bowers makes them just dangerous enough. I don’t want to pick the Raiders to win, but I’ll take them and this big bucket of points. Raiders +9.5
Indianapolis Colts -6 vs. Atlanta Falcons
It probably won’t surprise anyone who follows our picks that I really wanted to jump on the Falcons getting this many points against a team quarterbacked by Daniel Jones. It was even more tempting when I realized it wasn’t a true home game for the Colts, and is instead being played in Berlin. Flipping the perspective, though, we have the 2nd-ranked team in total DVOA taking on the 20th, and Jonathan Taylor facing the league’s 24th-ranked run defense. Indianapolis is also 2-2 on the road while Atlanta had a 30-0 loss to Carolina and a 10-point loss to Mac Jones. It doesn’t feel good picking either side of a Falcons game (I’m 1-7 picking their games this year), but I’d rather trust the numbers here than try to catch them on the upswing. Colts -6
Miami Dolphins +9.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Just like in Week 3 in Buffalo, I wanted to take the Dolphins here. They lost that game by 10 points, so covering with almost that many points at home shouldn’t be a problem, right? Well, we were wrong in Week 3 and we’re doing things differently now. Why shouldn’t I expect Josh Allen to run roughshod over the weak Miami defense? I might get burned on special teams where the Dolphins have a distinct advantage, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take to get the superior team with Super Bowl aspirations giving less than ten points in a critical stretch of the season for postseason seeding. Bills -9.5
New York Jets +2 vs. Cleveland Browns
Everything in me said “take the Browns and their 6th-ranked defense” in this matchup of miserable teams. The Jets don’t know who their quarterback is, they just traded their two best defensive players, and if they have a home field advantage it’s been hiding (they’re 0-5 at home this year). Of course, Cleveland also doesn’t know who their quarterback is, and they’re 0-4 on the road with a -81 point differential. I guess I’m taking the points against Dillon Gabriel on the road. Jets +2
Houston Texans +1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Texans! You want me to take Trevor Lawrence against the league’s number 1 defense by DVOA? The same Trevor Lawrence who just barely squeaked past the Raiders in overtime last week, somehow failing to cover a modest -3 line? Even if Davis Mills is filling in for the concussed C.J. Stroud, Houston’s offense shouldn’t have their usual issues against Jacksonville’s league-worst adjusted sack rate! Sigh. If I have to go opposite, I guess I’m glad I just need a win over a backup quarterback who hasn’t completed more than 60% of his passes in a game since Week 16 of 2022. Jaguars -1
Carolina Panthers -5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Easy money here, because there’s no way Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers should be favored by more than a field goal. If you were going to get blown out by Carolina this season, you’d have to either be the Falcons or one of the two worst teams in the NFL…oh. New Orleans is now 31st in total DVOA and has only stayed within five points of their opponent twice all season. I don’t think Tyler Shough is a serious quarterback, so laying the points only feels a little crazy. Panthers -5.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. New England Patriots
I kind of wish I didn’t have to pick this one because Drake Maye has looked really good and the Patriots have been good to me all year. I like them on the road with Tampa Bay still missing important players like Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, and Chris Godwin, but that’s the trap old me would have fallen into. Baker Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka should be fully healthy coming out of their bye week, and they can win by a field goal at home against a team that hasn’t faced many competent offenses. Buccaneers -2.5
Chicago Bears -4.5 vs. New York Giants
I really thought we’d get the standard home line of -2.5 here, so either I’m conditioned to be pessimistic about the Bears (definitely possible) or there’s something I’m overlooking. I know the Giants looked bad without Cam Skattebo last week, but Jaxson Dart still made some plays and the Bears gave up 42 points in a ridiculous win over the Bengals, who are 28th in total DVOA. But since we’re going opposite, I guess we’re hoping to give up fewer points to Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton than Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It could happen! Bears -4.5
Minnesota Vikings +4 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Minnesota, coming off an impressive win in Detroit, is getting more than a field goal at home against a dinged-up Ravens team? All season I would have said it’s impossible to pass up a team as competent and well-coached as the Vikings getting this kind of disrespect at home. But our new mindset says, “J.J. McCarthy is still a joke and this version of Baltimore doesn’t resemble the squad that got trounced by Houston.” I’m ready to be wrong, and I’m happy to be backing Lamar Jackson instead of the old rules. Ravens -4
Seattle Seahawks -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Come on, Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals are getting a full touchdown after shutting down Dallas and staying within four points of every opponent this season? Normally I’d really like the way Arizona’s improving run game and defense would travel, and their 23-20 loss to Seattle just six weeks ago would suggest I should take the points. We’re past normal, though. Sam Darnold is cooking and Seattle has a real defense and a real home field advantage that will feel entirely different than what the Cards faced in Dallas last week. I think two scores is more likely than a close game. Seahawks -7
Washington Commanders +8 vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions got pushed around on both sides of the ball last week and lost to the Vikings by more than the final score would suggest. Marcus Mariota has been pretty solid filling in for Jayden Daniels this year, and this is a huge line to be getting at home. It doesn’t matter. The Lions are ridiculous coming off a loss in the Dan Campbell era, and they’ll have revenge on the mind against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Washington was already struggling to move the ball with a dinged-up Jayden Daniels, and they won’t find any luck here without his gravity. Don’t just jump on the points for the home dog like I might have a few weeks ago. Lions -8
San Francisco 49ers +5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I already went opposite my instincts on this matchup in Week 5, and I got burned by Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne. The Rams have beaten the 49ers by more than 5 points once since the start of the 2019 season. Their defense is going to get carved up, but George Kittle and CMC will be enough to keep San Francisco close. 49ers +5
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Oh how I would love to fade the Steelers coming off their big 7-point win despite winning the turnover battle 6-1 last week. We know Pittsburgh isn’t a serious team in terms of title contention, and Justin Herbert is almost a complete opposite of Daniel Jones. That said…Joe Alt is now out for the season, the Steelers will have more fans in attendance than the Chargers, and this line is larger than the standard home -2.5. Steelers +3
Green Bay Packers -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Okay, maybe I can’t go opposite for every single pick. The Packers are favored by the standard home amount despite losing to the Panthers at home and losing Tucker Kraft for the season last week?! Philadelphia is still good, right? I’m accustomed to having to fight bias in the Eagles’ favor, but I guess it’s even stronger for the Packers. Let’s go reigning Super Bowl champs coming off a bye! Eagles +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
